When not to trust optimization results?

NexusFi · 2010-09-06T17:39:13-04:00

You can't post links until you have five posts. It prevents spam. To answer your original question (post #1), I suggest you read Evidence Based Technical Analysis by David Aronson, it is a great book for understanding the usefulness of backtesting. Mike Well, I'm not a spammer - you could probably have helped me out here but anyway - your site, your rules. I know the book and it's very negative - I prefer 'The Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies' - much more effective read. However, both …

Discussion in Traders Hideout

Updated September 6, 2010

When not to trust optimization results?

September 6th, 2010, 05:39 PM

#11 (permalink)

trendisyourfriend

Quebec Canada

Market Wizard

Experience: Intermediate

Platform: NinjaTrader

Broker: AMP/CQG

Trading: ES, NQ, YM

Frequency: Daily

Duration: Minutes

Posts: 4,529 since Oct 2009

Thanks Given: 4,183

Thanks Received: 6,029

Quoting

Either you have a system or you don't - period. A human being can observe 'out of the box' conditions and introduce changes to the rules, but unless there is a reason to make adjustments human beings are simply in the way when it comes to *executing clearly defined rules*.

If i may add my 2 cents. You seem to imply that price changes direction on a dime which is not the case as if it were then even automated BOTS could not develop an edge over the long term. The only reason why we can make money in the markets can be measured by evaluating the level of entropy we find in the system. If markets were as random as a roulette wheel then very few could make money over the long term if any. A level of supply will always be a level of supply and the same is true for a level of demand. You seem to imply these basic tenets are not valid anymore which is totally ridiculous.