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Seasonal Trades


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Seasonal Trades

  #61 (permalink)
 Futuresnoob 
San Antonio Texas
 
Experience: Intermediate
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The real question now is how do we use this information to make money. My first thought is to go long RBOB as the rumor fades but be ready to exit and go long soybeans if Trump does sign the executive order. But even if he signs it and they increase the use of corn and soybean(lowering demand for rbob) in fuels wouldn't it take a while for something like that to be implemented? Anyone have thoughts?

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  #62 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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Futuresnoob View Post
The real question now is how do we use this information to make money. My first thought is to go long RBOB as the rumor fades but be ready to exit and go long soybeans if Trump does sign the executive order. But even if he signs it and they increase the use of corn and soybean(lowering demand for rbob) in fuels wouldn't it take a while for something like that to be implemented? Anyone have thoughts?

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I held two seasonal trades including RB. I had closed the RBN-RBZ profitable some time ago. I closed the RBK-HOK early with a loss. And decided not to enter it again this spring.

I quit seasonal trades when fundamentals obviously are different than in previous years. And this seems to be the case for RB in March of 2017.

There are many other promising trades around. I am not good in trading short-term political discussions and decisions such as this one.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #63 (permalink)
 Futuresnoob 
San Antonio Texas
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker: Edge Clear, Rithmic
Trading: ES and Treasury Spreads
Posts: 102 since Nov 2016
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myrrdin View Post
I held two seasonal trades including RB. I had closed the RBN-RBZ profitable some time ago. I closed the RBK-HOK early with a loss. And decided not to enter it again this spring.

I quit seasonal trades when fundamentals obviously are different than in previous years. And this seems to be the case for RB in March of 2017.

There are many other promising trades around. I am not good in trading short-term political discussions and decisions such as this one.

Best regards, Myrrdin

I do think you may have a point about staying out of the way and finding trades that are keeping with the seasonal trend. This makes me think about risk management (mine is struggling at best). When in a seasonal trade how do you manage your risk? Is it a per contract loss amount? Say $500 per contract. Or is it a break of a technical trend or level?

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  #64 (permalink)
 ron99 
Cleveland, OH
 
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Futuresnoob View Post
I do think you may have a point about staying out of the way and finding trades that are keeping with the seasonal trend. This makes me think about risk management (mine is struggling at best). When in a seasonal trade how do you manage your risk? Is it a per contract loss amount? Say $500 per contract. Or is it a break of a technical trend or level?

I use $4,000 per contract/spread. If you use $500, you will exit many trades that eventually become profitable.

Also watch the fundamentals. If they change I exit.

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  #65 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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Futuresnoob View Post
I do think you may have a point about staying out of the way and finding trades that are keeping with the seasonal trend. This makes me think about risk management (mine is struggling at best). When in a seasonal trade how do you manage your risk? Is it a per contract loss amount? Say $500 per contract. Or is it a break of a technical trend or level?

Generally I exit a seasonal trade, when fundamentals change significantly. No matter if the trade has made money or not. Additionally I have a stop loss, when a technical level is broken at the end of the trading day. And I prefer to keep lot size small. This allows you to give the trade more room, and still risk only a small percentage of your account.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #66 (permalink)
 Futuresnoob 
San Antonio Texas
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Broker: Edge Clear, Rithmic
Trading: ES and Treasury Spreads
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Thank you everyone from a guy that wants to keep what money he hasn't managed to loose. I thought by trading with a seasonal trend (MCRI.COM) that I would have much better success. In looking at gold and how it behaved in January and through February now possibly weaker in March I may have been right on the concept but wrong on the product. I used Fib to develop a support level in gold back in January and was really close but this was before I knew anything about seasonal trends and had just started learning Fib. I will be trying to get out of Rbob with at least my pants and a lesson learned. I still want to learn energy trading but next time I will slow down on my decision making and evaluate the current technicals and fundamentals.


Jason

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  #67 (permalink)
 Futuresnoob 
San Antonio Texas
 
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Trading: ES and Treasury Spreads
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I believe in sharing information if I think it will add value. I am in the energy field and I found the website that has some timely enery news. Seems the possible drop in Rbob was being mentioned back in late February. I may have not been able to predict the future with these articles but it may have been enough to make me question my position and size.

DownstreamToday.com - News and Information for the Downstream Oil and Gas Industry

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  #68 (permalink)
 
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 SMCJB 
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Futuresnoob View Post
I will be trying to get out of Rbob with at least my pants and a lesson learned.

If your in a position you either don't like or don't want, get out. "Trying" to get out, aka waiting for losses to reduce, is a formula for blowing an account up.

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  #69 (permalink)
 Futuresnoob 
San Antonio Texas
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Broker: Edge Clear, Rithmic
Trading: ES and Treasury Spreads
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SMCJB View Post
If your in a position you either don't like or don't want, get out. "Trying" to get out, aka waiting for losses to reduce, is a formula for blowing an account up.

I will be taking your advice and placed the stop I should have placed on my crack spread to begin with right here. If takes me out then I'm out. If it continues higher then I will pull the stop up. I truly broke every rule with this trade. From an emotional bad entry to not having a stop for fear of having a stop to tight. Over leveraged and emotional is a good way to donate your money.

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  #70 (permalink)
 Futuresnoob 
San Antonio Texas
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, TOS
Broker: Edge Clear, Rithmic
Trading: ES and Treasury Spreads
Posts: 102 since Nov 2016
Thanks Given: 50
Thanks Received: 55


I've been allowing myself to learn the phrase "better late than never" doesn't apply very well to successful trading. I was wondering when using a trailing stop how do smart traders determine how tight to trail your stop? I'm on a 30 minute chart of RBOB with a 7 ema, 21 ema, and a 150 ema. My current strategy is to exit if it breaks my trend line. I don't consider myself to be worlds greatest scalper hence why I liked seasonal trade idea. As previously mentioned I did ever thing wrong on this one and the trailing stop is not about making a profit it is about keeping most of the money that the market is willing to let me have back then stepping back for a reboot and reflection so I don't end up here again.


Update: I got stopped out of the trade. I could have made a better exit keeping more money that I was down but I will just be grateful for what I got back.

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