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Metals

  #21 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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SMCJB View Post
So your hypothesis is that Silver will outperform Gold, but your doing that as 1 contract:1 contract trade? Isn't the danger that the trade becomes dominated by the Gold position since it's so much larger? More specifically if Silver goes up 50%, and Gold goes up 35%, your hypothesis would be correct but you would actually lose money. On the other hand if Silver goes down 25%, and Gold goes down 20%, your hypothesis was wrong but you would actually make money.

Thanks a lot for making me aware of the fault. I adjusted the trade to a relation 3 SIZ - 2 GCZ. This yields USD 244,000 for GC and USD 232,000 for SI, based on yesterdays closiing prices.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #22 (permalink)
 
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 ElChacal 
Houston, TX
 
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Hi @myrrdin,
How would you interpret the recent SHARP fall on OI in Platinum? It seems to me that Commercials closed their Long positions. And as bearish as that may sound, price did not drop and we just saw a nice long bullish bar today. I would like to know if you have any current insights on this instrument.

To me this is a case study. Is today's bar a bull trap? I really don't know.

Thanks.

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  #23 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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ElChacal View Post
Hi @myrrdin,
How would you interpret the recent SHARP fall on OI in Platinum? It seems to me that Commercials closed their Long positions. And as bearish as that may sound, price did not drop and we just saw a nice long bullish bar today. I would like to know if you have any current insights on this instrument.

To me this is a case study. Is today's bar a bull trap? I really don't know.

Thanks.

I did not trade Platinum in recent months, and did not follow it closely.

Yesterday Platinum (and also Gold) moved upwards strongly. I assume
the reason is "safe haven".

Perhaps someone else is able to give an explanation for the drop OI.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #24 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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ElChacal View Post
Hi @myrrdin,
How would you interpret the recent SHARP fall on OI in Platinum? It seems to me that Commercials closed their Long positions. And as bearish as that may sound, price did not drop and we just saw a nice long bullish bar today. I would like to know if you have any current insights on this instrument.

To me this is a case study. Is today's bar a bull trap? I really don't know.

Thanks.

I was stopped out of the SI-GC spread some time ago.

Currently I hold long positions in GC and SI and sold calls above the futures - in my opinion the lows are in.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #25 (permalink)
 harryguy 
st. louis missouri
 
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I'm curious what your thoughts are on the net long commercial position in gold/silver. The total longs are on the high end but what is interesting is the high net long reading comes from the lack of short positions more than a larger than ever actual long position.


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  #26 (permalink)
 
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 ElChacal 
Houston, TX
 
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Copper is looking interesting. Unfortunately, I have all my funds busy on other trades.
Trading months March, May and July are trading at a premium compared to each subsequent month. Not sure how standard that scenario really is.

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  #27 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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ElChacal View Post
Copper is looking interesting. Unfortunately, I have all my funds busy on other trades.
Trading months March, May and July are trading at a premium compared to each subsequent month. Not sure how standard that scenario really is.

What makes you think copper is looking interesting ?

I just read through the most recent fundametal news - some of them are bearish, some bullish. But I do not see anything exciting.

An important issue will be decided soon - the trade issue between China and the US. It will influence the copper price significantly, but unfortunately we do not know in which direction.

The seasonal charts do not give a clear message, and there are no COT data availble currently.

I do not hold a position in copper, but I would be interested in learning about good arguments for entering a trade.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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  #28 (permalink)
 
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 ElChacal 
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myrrdin View Post
What makes you think copper is looking interesting ?

Right... The government shutdown has us without the COTs and I would really need confirmation. But I am noticing a pattern that makes me think it has bottomed out. Again would need the COT report to get confidence.

Apologies for being too vague...

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  #29 (permalink)
 
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 CannonTrading   is a Vendor
 
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Here is our opinion of Gold from a few days ago: https://www.cannontrading.com/tools/support-resistance-levels/gold-futures-heiken-ashi-daily-chart-trading-levels-1-25-2019/

PM with any questions about Cannon Trading (800) 454-9572 (310) 859-9572. Trading commodity futures, forex and options involves substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this post are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. These are risky markets and only risk capital should be used. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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  #30 (permalink)
 myrrdin 
Linz Austria
 
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ElChacal View Post
Right... The government shutdown has us without the COTs and I would really need confirmation. But I am noticing a pattern that makes me think it has bottomed out. Again would need the COT report to get confidence.

Apologies for being too vague...

I am not good in reading charts. Thus, I am always interested in opinions of chartists ...

Best regards, Myrrdin

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