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Just curious, does the ES follow the S&P or does the S&P follow the ES? Who are the big ES traders that move the market? The S&P is individual stocks so seems the S&P moves independently and the ES kinda follows but may move up before the S&P moves up? If so, are the big ES traders watching the S&P and then buying contracts when the S&P moves up or what?
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
during regular trading hours the stock market is the leading market that moves the index around, during extended trading hours the index then switches to futures and goes up and down based on futures activity. to learn a bit more about the big players in the futures market look up commitment of traders (COT) reports
These are excellent questions, and they come up all the time. They also get answered pretty often, but the questions keep coming up because they are natural ones. They have to do with how seemingly independent markets can move closely together, and in fact, what the futures markets are for.
I've taken a shot now and then at answering them. I just did a quick search to find an old post that I think hits the high points. Take a look at this post and see if I covered your questions. If not, let me know what doesn't work for you and I'll try to make it all more clear.
You mention a number of questions about price action trading, most of which I will pass on, because I don't want to comment on a particular trading method.
But I will touch on one of the points you raised, namely, does buying and selling in the …
To put it simply, basically it's hedging and arbitrage that keeps these markets tightly in step, but give this long post a read to fill the picture out.
Someday I'll try to boil all this down to something short and put it in the wiki section. In the meantime, I hope this responds to your questions. Let me know if it doesn't.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
The futures usually leads the cash market for indices like ES. You'll see that there's a lot more congestion for the microwave lines going from west to east. The open secret is that Jump is the largest trader in the ES complex.
After hours the index futures are implying an opening price for the cash market and trade side by side during regular hours, and like @bobwest mentioned allow for hedging and arbitrage.
Thanks. The question often comes up of how these independent markets can stay in synch. The fact is that it's easy, because they aren't independent. Simple.
Simple but not necessarily obvious. That's why the question keeps coming up, because it's a natural one.
I hope that post makes it more clear.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
