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I agree with most of what you said. I think at the end you stated a plan to get you to where I was asking if you were -- can you run a report and find out if your actual (not what if, not woke up too late, but actual) trades are showing what your forecast model predicted they would.
On CL I see we're near a triple bottom on the weekly chart between 68 and 65. Jeff Macke would always say that there's no such thing as a triple bottom/top, meaning on the third test major levels usually don't hold. I guess we'll soon find out.
All 3 major MAs have been violated to the downside and we've had a huge bearish engulfing bar 2 weeks ago whose trend is still in tact. So if we get prints below 65 next week I think CL is in trouble. The rise in the dollar seems to be the major reason for oil's decline, so we'll need to watch the currencies as well and see if the correlation stays in place. I'd have a neutral to bearish bias for the week unless we see a major reversal in price action.
I would think that if we close below the prior swing low, or the low that made it a double bottom, that we should then see a 127.2-161.8 extension of the last swing up. I think the 127.2 would put that around the 65 level. On the other hand, I think there could be a bounce before that happens. I feel that CL is a strange animal and it can do anything above and beyond what any technical analysis can determine. Don't get me wrong. I'm not knocking the analysis, I just think for whatever reason CL does wacky stuff.
One other comment. The down trend on the weekly is nice and orderly. The last up move is sloppy. Some might say it looks corrective as opposed to impulsive, if one is an elliot wave type person which I'm certainly not. So, who knows.
Monday, May 24th - ES opened below Friday's close and Monday's are usually bullish so it's a good day to fade down gaps, but the setup didn't meet my criteria and the gap guide data was non-existent for some down-gap zones so we must be in a rare condition. Instead, I setup to fade a small up gap based on system criteria, which had a 65.8% win rate (less than my usual 70%) but it was mitigated by a profit factor of 1.45, larger than 1.3. Didn't matter anyways as it opened down, took about 5pts of heat which was survivable, then filled the gap.
Sorry, my wife's been in the hospital this week for an emergency surgery since Monday. She's going to be OK but it's going be a week or so until they let her out of the hospital. Needless to say it hasn't left me much time for journaling. In short, I haven't taken any trades.
Tuesday, May 25th - Didn't like any gap zones.
Wednesday, May 26th - Liked 2 gap zones, didn't open where I wanted.
Thursday, May 27th - Liked 1 gap zone, didn't open where I wanted.
Still playing with HHoLLy grail, here's some charts and my thoughts. I'm discovering more ways to to use this thing, even in chop.
I hosted our Meetup last night on "Favorite Trade Setups", it was one of the best ones so far. I love learning about how other people trade.
Getting ready to see if I want to check out the LA Traders Expo next month. Is anybody here going? I went last year and really enjoyed it, though knowing what I know now I'm not sure I'd get much out of it. I'll have to check out the sessions. However, some of my favorite parts were just meeting other traders and chatting with them.
Did some more playing around with reversal failures. Enhanced the indie to draw yellow arrows where the directional arrows fail. The yellow line is where price must go to consider it a failure. If we get another directional reversal then it's considered a success and the failure line stops plotting. Wondering if the directional arrows work best or their failures. Something to test.
See attached chart. There's one "failed failure" which was resulted in a huge move. They are more rare but it's result here makes me wonder is this is something I want investigate more.
Created shBarATR (attached here) which is just ATR (green) and the size of a bar AbsoluteValue(High - Low) to see if the size of the reversal bar correlates to the success of the reversal signal. Looking at volume too.
Best wishes to your wife, I've been there. Hope she is doing well.
As you know Mike has asked me to Moderate Downloads & Indicators. He would like to put all of the versions of indicators, templates, workspaces & educational material posted in threads if not truly beta. If it is beta then just leave it here if you are still actively working on it.
If this is a final version that you posted would you mind putting it in downloads just adding a link to the thread to bring everyone to that area. This will really help the efficiency of searching indicators. As well as putting it in a place where they can be tracked to minimize overlap and multiple postings.
Andy
R.I.P. Andy Zektzer (ZTR), 1960-2010.
Please visit this thread for more information.
