Continuing from:

2024 Dragon Continuing from Gamma, Dark Pool and Index all pointing lower on a daily basis. Would rather not have further dripping on VIX to the point where a major reversal would be imminent. Yields testing various possibilities, may revisit areas from …

Summary

1) Used predictive methods like earnings to model longer term
2) Simplified method by removing complicated indicators
3) Incorporated orthogonal measures to verify trend

To do

1) Optional, but form tick chart for intraday
2) Stick to vetted method, even if missing out
3) Explore ways to diversify and hedge if possible

From previous years, heavy use of fuzzy indicators were more of a distraction
Levels are more simple, and associate with time volume and price
Reverted to not trying to predict, but calmly assess and react

Mantra: Accept the outcome, learn and protect from risk

Well the conditions are conducive to delta neutral hedging of holdings

Some negative delta shorter term for margin as well since this is prolonged

OPEX in a few days, and the sentiment is still weak, so likely further continuation

into OPEX, the drive for lower vol and establishing bullish case is AWAKENED

MOMO was missing yesterday but follow through has increased likelihood

though the EOY selloff caused weakness, vol behavior is optimistic now

sometime mid last year 2024, aud/jpy signaled a rest period

indexes kept pushing, aided by selling vol and maintaining stability

the highs did fizzle to let out some air, but aud/jpy still has not joined

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the last exuberant push has indications that bubbling tendencies still exist

today the yen crosses have pushed hard enough to join the parade

the backward behavior of carries following leads to some questions

so onwards the pumping precedes all TBD with BoJ decision on rates

while the british yen cross has the most tilt factor

the range for the antipodean crosses is more drastic

if there is vol to be had, then aud or nzd would tilt harder

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more info on yen carries with the BoJ tonight, has been quiet