20250403 pre market



News
tariff chaos
09:45 numbers
10:00 ism


What is the market doing?
Falling on bad news

What is it trying to do?
Make new lows

How good of a job is it making?
At the moment it is doing a good job

We are down 3.7% from y close
This is already a huge number
> i would not short this and hope for more
Oni is very short
> Lets see if they get paid or not. Sellers could get in trouble above the onh

20250404 pre market



News
china tariffs
11:25 powell

Condition 1
we are in a huge sell off

Condition 0
open with a very large gap
but the onl is much lower

Thoughts
anthing can happen
just trade whats in front of you
do not sit in trades, they can turn on a dime, take profits

20250407 pre market



News
-

Condition 1
strong sell off

Condition 0
we open with big gap down
in upper thord of onr

Thoughts

As always
door no 1: go down
door no 2 go up
door no 3 choppy balance

Vola is high, let things establish first
no need to anticipate too much

News
14:00 daly speaks

Condition 1
Sell off
yesterday we saw strong copvering

Condition 0
Yesterdays tendency of covering continues in eth
we open with non true gap 3% higher close to y h

Thoughts
Same like yesterday
no need to anticipate too much
treat yourself some establishment

20250409 pre market



News
10:30 oil inventories
13:00 bond auction
14:00 fed minutes !

Condition 1
yesterday we continuesd to cover in a and b
then sellers took control and we rolled over hard

Condition 0
we open inside y spike

Thoughts
I treat base of spike as an important level

The market is clearly bearish but tough covering rallies can come anytime
Failing covering rallies are good spots for shorts

20250410 pre market


News
10:00 feds bowman
12:30 feds harker
13:00 bond auction

Condition 1
with the tariff pause we jumped higher below the balance area we came from

Condition 0
eth respects the upper distribution perfectly
> so i use these levels

Thoughts
anything can happen
could be a day with choppy balance, be cautious
use mgi and trade a few scalps

20250411 pre market



News
1000 numbers
1100 feds williams

Condition 1
yesterday inside day in the middle of wednesdays mega range

Condition 0
eth completely nside range

Thoughts
Seems that the market has to balance out a bit and does not know yet where to go next

Playing with chat gpt





The market unfortunately does not show that obvious that it is not willing to move. On the contrary the market produces choppy balance trying to get you in a trade in bad location/bad context etc

20250414 pre market



News
1100 numbers
1300 feds waller

Condition 1
2 day balance consisting of 2 inside days

Condition 0
open with gap up

Thoughts
Top of 2 day balance is my line in the sand

20250415 pre market



News
11300 white house pree briefing

Condition 1
last 3 days are inside days

Condition 0
open in middle of range
eth competely in range

Thoughts
If we do not move out of yesterdays range fast theres nothing to do in the first hour