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  #231 (permalink)
 
john2000's Avatar
 john2000 
Chicago, IL
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader, TOS
Broker: Amp Futures/CQG/IB
Trading: ES, ZB, ZN, Forex
Posts: 162 since Jan 2010
Thanks Given: 244
Thanks Received: 59

Thanks for the elaboration . . . regarding your CBM math though, es did not trade at 1102.77 yesterday (6/6/12). Do you mean 1302.77? Or may be I'm missing something.

The graphic charts with the MA's is much easier ,to follow . . . I think because you can see them develop live as you go . . . the numbers are easy to see after the fact.

Been meaning to ask you about the time when (1)the bars penetrate the trend line, either up, or down. Do you switch from Long to Short (or vise versa)? Or do you wait for another setup? (2)Because the MA's do sometimes get a bid "muddy". They start merging, and seem like they will cross, and then they almost run parallel for a while, and then they start to widen again. So, not sure what the protocol is as related to the trend line.


In the attached pic, the Yellow square shows a White trend line which I added to your previously posted chart (1). Obviously the Long is arguably a good trade at the MA cross. then the price move down and you're either stopped out, at the trend line, or out way before that, say at the 30 MA, somewhere. The Blue square demonstrates my question (2) on "muddy" MA's. Any suggestions?

Again, thanks for the sharing your perspective.

P.S. After I wrote this post, I went back and re-read some previous post. I think my answer to questions above are addressed in Post 99 ---




creekboy View Post
john2000 - thankyou for your comments and i am glad you are enjoying this thread -

as for webinars -i am computer stupid so to speak -i was not kidding when i just was taught how to do screen pics -and dont know about the difficulty in putting a webinar together -or if it would be any better than what is being shared here-

as for numbers -there are so many ways to watch markets move -these patterns were all set prior to the computer age - i use what i call Country Boy Math -

here is a CBM -# from yesturday 1102.77 now look at the 1102 est candle on the es -

note that it dropped 7 ticks to set the trigger went up 7 points to the 10 area fell back to the 1102 candle then proceeded a slow climb to 21 area over night .note the 10 --and 21 are hidden in the # .

to me its easier to pick 2 ma's and do what is shown in all the past post -to get new traders in the correct direction with known risk before they enter -

its the risk that is always the unknow for most traders -and with this system -if used properly they will trade with more confidence over time -




please note chart 1 and 2 are the same trend line from 2 days ago -down in the 1280 area -

i call this coming to visit and old friend


i guess my bottom line is -there are more than fancy computer systems out there that work for fresh minds -these setup can help verify any trading system as a backup for your entry -

i run 2 charts through out the day -1 with the 565/1400 and the 30/150 and the 2nd with just the 30/150 -

this helps me seperate long term and intraday -

i hope some of this babble has helped answer your concerns


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  #232 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Trading: es
Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
Thanks Given: 106
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the 1102 is est eastern standard time -not price -


as for the first box -i see no trade in that set up

the second box was my long right after i could establish a trend line -if the low of the blue trend line was my exit -

hope this helps -

i try never to trade or make calls on here -with the obvious after the fact -as there are enough people in the business that do that already -

howevere john2000 -on good volitility move i will trade setup to setup -and when i start to see flat lining trends like the 6E high risk zone -i exit and if i feel like playing will just do box scalper trades as shown

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  #233 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Trading: es
Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
Thanks Given: 106
Thanks Received: 347


john2000 -this post is past theory--

1- short zone 1316 area

2- long zone 1300 area

3-short zone 1306 area

now that 22 points in theory - if and only if it's used with the 2nd chart for longer moves -because the left side of the green bar would have added 2 trades trying to guess the action

4- is the area in question -it represents the trend to the low under the #4 -now a good system trader using 11 as pivot and 150 ma as s/r would have jumped on the short


its always easier in hind site - but if you know the last high is the stop than take the trade -




on chart 5--6 you will see longer term but the 5 signal would not have been clear till 6 was in place -although the trend was down and the tap of the 150 ma on this chart would have been or is 4 bars of wall or resistance -

the blue trend
the 150 ma
the 250ma
the 660 ma

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  #234 (permalink)
 
john2000's Avatar
 john2000 
Chicago, IL
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader, TOS
Broker: Amp Futures/CQG/IB
Trading: ES, ZB, ZN, Forex
Posts: 162 since Jan 2010
Thanks Given: 244
Thanks Received: 59

Creekboy,

Thanks for the clarification of 1102, and further theory thoughts in the last two points. I'll take a closer look when I'm in front of a bigger screen, and get back to you. Although as far as setups/trades I though that the crossover, and the begining of the trend line (in this case white color) WAS the setup to go long. No?

FINE PRINT TO CLARIFY THE INTENT: IT'S CLEAR TO ME, AND HOPEFULY EVERYONE ELSE READING THIS THREAD PAST PRESENT AND FUTURE, THAT ONE SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY OF THESE DISCUSSIONS AND SETUPS AS TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS. IF ONE DOES ACT ON THESE, IT IS AT THEIR OWN RISK.

I hope you don't mind me stating the large caps, since this is your thread, I can delete it, if you want. But just wanted clarify for everyone these are just ideas being discussed.

Do you look at volume as a component of your trading?

Thanks,

John



Creek
creekboy View Post
john2000 -this post is past theory--

1- short zone 1316 area

2- long zone 1300 area

3-short zone 1306 area

now that 22 points in theory - if and only if it's used with the 2nd chart for longer moves -because the left side of the green bar would have added 2 trades trying to guess the action

4- is the area in question -it represents the trend to the low under the #4 -now a good system trader using 11 as pivot and 150 ma as s/r would have jumped on the short


its always easier in hind site - but if you know the last high is the stop than take the trade -




on chart 5--6 you will see longer term but the 5 signal would not have been clear till 6 was in place -although the trend was down and the tap of the 150 ma on this chart would have been or is 4 bars of wall or resistance -

the blue trend
the 150 ma
the 250ma
the 660 ma


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  #235 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Trading: es
Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
Thanks Given: 106
Thanks Received: 347

dont allow anyone to put fear in your path when it comes to this system - the exit and risk are clearly defined -

here is and example on a lesser ma chart

using 15/75 as crossovers -

note 1-2-3 are all trend break ambushes -most times faster than 1 could think

but look at # 4 for the patient trader

going long at the 1301.50 area as the 15/75 are about to break north has a very defined risk -

the STOP with no questioned asked would be 1298.25 (9 ticks )- the reward as in this case is a move to the last crossover or what ever you feel you need on a lesser level -

if you fail to get out then YOU ARE NOT PAYING ATTENTION TO THE SYSTEM

also note that between 2 and 3 there is a sideways move developing as the market looks for direction 96div 16 =6

right now using simple math on the last 5 crossovers shown -the pivot is 1304.38 area

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  #236 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Trading: es
Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
Thanks Given: 106
Thanks Received: 347

as discussed in previous threads - when trading mutilpe contracts always set your self up for a free trade agreement - thus when up 9 ticks -reduce by 1/2 and try again when the next clear signal starts -

this thread was started to show beginner traders a nice little edge that has clearly defined risk -

dont try and guess the move when your new and just starting out -only the clear setups have the defined risk as we have shown over and over -

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  #237 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Trading: es
Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
Thanks Given: 106
Thanks Received: 347

john2000 - the reason i dont see a trade in the first box you questioned -is because its prior to the 250/660 crossover and as for long term trend it was not established and would have been a meer short term guess for a short term trade with only 1/2 the info available to use -however trade what you see -as i did not see it clearly defined

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  #238 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Trading: es
Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
Thanks Given: 106
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the current es chart as volume developes -notice the long term set up -which is a move north of the 50% line -has a risk factor of great than 10 points -there is no great reward with that setup -wait for the next -

as for volume questioned by john2000 -as discussed in a prior post -on tick charts lesser volume just means slower setups -i never really equate it in what i do -

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  #239 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Trading: es
Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
Thanks Given: 106
Thanks Received: 347

notice the green oval of risk approx 3 points shorted the open at the 1305.75 spot -reduced 1/2 at the 3 point profit zone -will ride for free trade at this point - this will be the only trade today do to graduation -pivot off the 15/75 bar is at 1305.14 area as of the last yellow circle

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  #240 (permalink)
 creekboy 
phl pa. usa
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: tos
Trading: es
Posts: 1,126 since Mar 2012
Thanks Given: 106
Thanks Received: 347


notice on the greater chart we are still in short trend mode and how thin the resistance wall is -if it chooses to challenge it ---

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