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  #1181 (permalink)
 
GaryD's Avatar
 GaryD 
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Meanwhile, ES changed it's mind about whatever problems it was having last week, and is approaching the test of the 786.





Which is also the VAL / NPOC area.





ES put in a very tight range neutral day, a heavy contrast to CL's full on trend day.

I used to pay a lot of attention to multiple market confluence correlation. ES 1580ish and CL 92ish is an example.

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  #1182 (permalink)
 
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 GaryD 
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zander931 View Post
I'd like to offer my humble opinion regarding your recent MP support/resistance comments.


One the positive side, even though I currently am struggling with it, I do see the market respond to it better than anything I have watched up to this point. NPOC and VWAP especially.

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  #1183 (permalink)
 
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 zander931 
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GaryD View Post
One the positive side, even though I currently am struggling with it, I do see the market respond to it better than anything I have watched up to this point. NPOC and VWAP especially.

Absolutely. I'm amazed how I often I see price respond to those areas of acceptance---often getting rejected immediately or congesting for awhile. Yesterday the ES stopped to the tick at a NVPOC to conclude that ridiculous mini-crash.

I reread my first comment, and I am now nervous I was careless with the language I used. By no means was I trying to insinuate you don't observe market context. I was only suggesting the usefulness of using market profile reference points in conjunction with that context. Hopefully it came across correctly the first time, and I'm just paranoid !

Nice CL observations btw

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  #1184 (permalink)
 
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 GaryD 
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zander931 View Post
I reread my first comment, and I am now nervous I was careless with the language I used. By no means was I trying to insinuate you don't observe market context. I was only suggesting the usefulness of using market profile reference points in conjunction with that context. Hopefully it came across correctly the first time, and I'm just paranoid !


No issues here. I am often the first to say I don't have a clue what I am doing.

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  #1185 (permalink)
 
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 GaryD 
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Overlaying the Monthly Vwap on the 120m shows additional confluence with the lower side of last month's value and the upper edge of this month's.

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  #1186 (permalink)
 
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 GaryD 
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Pulling the drawings from the 120m onto the TPO chart.

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  #1187 (permalink)
 
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 GaryD 
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zander931 View Post

For instance... from the chart you posted it looks like crude opened out of range, leaving a six day balance in the dust.


Going back over it, I guess the question was, what made it a 6 day balance instead of a 7 day? I was viewing that as being the unfair high of that entire grouping. It was wrong, but why?


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  #1188 (permalink)
 
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 josh 
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GaryD View Post
Going back over it, I guess the question was, what made it a 6 day balance instead of a 7 day? I was viewing that as being the unfair high of that entire grouping. It was wrong, but why?

It/you were not wrong--there is no right or wrong, and that's an important point I think. You could say that your view did not align with the market's, but it won't always, so it's not a matter of your view being wrong, it just did not coincide with today's market activity.

Of those 7 profiles in that group, three of them (including the last 2 before today) have almost the same high, and the last two days prior to today had almost the same range, with the last day before today being an inside day.

I do not have this setup up, but what if you merge those 7 profiles (prior to today)--what does it look like?

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  #1189 (permalink)
 
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 zander931 
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GaryD View Post
Going back over it, I guess the question was, what made it a 6 day balance instead of a 7 day? I was viewing that as being the unfair high of that entire grouping. It was wrong, but why?



josh View Post
It/you were not wrong--there is no right or wrong, and that's an important point I think. You could say that your view did not align with the market's, but it won't always, so it's not a matter of your view being wrong, it just did not coincide with today's market activity.

Of those 7 profiles in that group, three of them (including the last 2 before today) have almost the same high, and the last two days prior to today had almost the same range, with the last day before today being an inside day.

I do not have this setup up, but what if you merge those 7 profiles (prior to today)--what does it look like?

I'd do what Josh suggested and create a micro-composite of those seven profiles. I didn't pull up CL on my charts, but (just at first glance) it looks as if you may have a nice Gaussian distribution(ish) structure there with excess at either end.

@josh, by no means am I disagreeing with you, but perhaps you could clarify your previous post for me?
I've always thought in terms of definitive "right" or "wrong" when it comes to trading decisions. If I initiate a trade and get stopped out, my analysis of the market, (no matter what variation of analysis I performed) was clearly incorrect. Or maybe only the timing was off... either way something was incorrect.

Any clarification is appreciated

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  #1190 (permalink)
 
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 josh 
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zander931 View Post
I've always thought in terms of definitive "right" or "wrong" when it comes to trading decisions. If I initiate a trade and get stopped out, my analysis of the market, (no matter what variation of analysis I performed) was clearly incorrect. Or maybe only the timing was off... either way something was incorrect.

My point, I think (it's late), is simply this: we are shown to have been right or wrong, in retrospect only. A trading decision or analysis works out to be "right" or "wrong," but that does not automatically make it a decision that we should not have taken. For example, selling what we perceive as an unfair high is perhaps a high probability play, over a large data set, and that does not make it a "wrong" thing to do, just because it does not work on one particular day. Perhaps we can learn from this and work on our analysis for the future, but that does not mean that the idea itself was in some way "bad" necessarily (though in some cases, I think a case can be made for this). This is the general idea I think I had in my head when I wrote this.

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