Thursday, May 9, 2013


Overnight TPO profile shows a mirror image of yesterday's RTH. As though the rest of the world thanked us. I had tried to short crude yesterday but it did not want to cooperate. But it retraced the eitire day's range in the ON session. At roughly 8am, ahead of the major news of the day, the 8:30am Jobless Claims, crude is trading pennies from yesterday's RTH low.

RTH sessions shaded.






I am viewing this market as still being in balance due to the range extension that occured on Sunday night from the Israeli strike on Syria over the weekend. Merged profiles:




And unmerged:











The intermediate bearish trendline continues to hold, but is forming minor H/Ls.






Added a new cumulative delta chart with no price in a small corner of the screen. I removed it from another chart to free up room vertically and place ETH and RTH charts stacked on top of each other.


Another beautiful day in Orlando, my back is slightly better maybe than yesterday, but the muscle relaxer I took after the close makes me a zombie. I went to bed around 8pm last night, slept until 6:30 this morning.

Basic headline in the news made me chuckle this morning. "Roubini predicts Big Rally, then Crash". Yeah, well so do I. It's that damn timing thing that's a bitch.

My TUT email today:

"It's not what one says, Gary, that determines whether it's true or false, but what they tried to convey. Listen with your heart."


My take: "It's not what price says that determines whether it is true or false, but the direction it tried to move in. Listen with your chart."

That was a serious selloff in the ES this afternoon. It hit the C extension to the tick and pushed back to LOD/Y-LOD going into the close.





In this morning's action there was a lot of selling at the top of the TPOVAH, ETH Vwap was down. Prior to the ES move lower, as CL was going into the pit close, there was a lot of selling into that move up. And CL tried to complete a minor 5WM.





The weekly balance area was tested on the low side, and then pushed higher. But with "L" period pulling back so hard, I am going to view that K period as responsive selling excess.








And back to that persistent intermediate trendline on CL...




I am coming to the market tomorrow with a short bias, as of tonight's close. UNLESS the intermediate trendline breaks. At which point I would watch for both B legs to be taken out soon.

There is Knowledge, learned in books, and there is Knowing, learned in life. I look at these profiles and think I know something. But many times only have knowledge. But knowing comes from having knowledge.

"LQVcd" is what the current time price oportunity says to me. Sarcastically. Nearing RTH excess.

Not sure about the "Historical Bracket POC", something I am reading about. Kind of. Reading about the concept at least, the whole idea of value in larger clusters. Wanting to become aware of it.

Today I watched that whole climb up, starting by buying it, then closing with a scalp, then thinking. "Watch this mutha go all the way back up and take out the porr hig from AB. Did not trade it. Thought it, contempleted, but I allowed myself to drop several shorts this morning and so thought I needed to watch for awhile. Thought I saw a buy, and did buy it, but to believe it would take out the poor high? Maybe on the next entry.

Will crude go higher? Lower? It is balancing, planning on going somewhere from here. Chasing value as a puppy chases it's tail, it never gets old. We puppy sat last weekend, it does not take much to entertain them.

Taking the last steroid pill of the say and back at 7am.

Night settings.

GaryD 

I am coming to the market tomorrow with a short bias, as of tonight's close. UNLESS the intermediate trendline breaks. At which point I would watch for both B legs to be taken out soon.

Friday, May 5 2010


The ON session may have already made the move I was looking for.




And the DX did break through




ES is retestiing the local DB






And now CL is coming into a key area. Puts me in a tough place, breaking out of a multi-day trading range and falling right into structural support...

Friday's market in crude was really something to see. I have not witnessed a reversal an then such extreme intensity of a closing move for quite awhile. I can see it in hindsight, but I never would have guessed it had that kind of push left in it.






The DX had broken above resistance and was threatening a B leg the night before, and it broke the next morning.

GaryD 

Crude started coming down prior in the ON session, resulting in a gap open lower and continuing selloff. The DX topped out after breaking the highs, and CL slowly pulled back into daily value. I saw TPOS start to build and started to consider a long, but felt like it was a bad move considering everythig else. I set my sights on a minor ABC to enter short.

I somewhat knew better, I saw value was being accepted, I knew it was Friday and the volume should be falling off making shorting tougher, but I thought it was setting up a trend day down.

However, I saw on the 240m that the W3 (or maybe that has been blurred somewhat now with the size of the move down) was still intact, that price never got to the trendline, and price was being accepted. That should have told me to go long in the bigger picture, a, but an upward move regardless), nd I lost the battle that trading day.

(60M SHOWN)





I also knew that overnight inventory was short, and once price pushed up above the 2SD there was not much structure in close range to stop the move.





To try to drive the point home I have spent a lot of time reviewing early signs of price acceptance. Even in the chart above, I see value was accepted. I had a gut feeling about buying, but ignored it as it was possibly not acknowledging what could have been a trend day. But trend days are to be viewed in context, and in the greater plan crude was still in an upward trend, and just gave a brief opportunity for longer term traders to load up with less risk.

With inventory adjusted, possibly resistance at the intermediate trendline has been weakened. There are still shorts up in that top excess area, but they are not feeling as good this weekend as they were Friday morning.


Until volume comes back in it is tough to tell. There was nothing to stop that upmove, but the day, time of day, and positioning were perfect for those wanting to squeeze the piss out of crude. I will go with the intermediate trendline break, but until that still not solid on knowing what that was all about.

Almost finished the 2nd book of my 1000 pages to understanding market profile. "Markets In Profile" does not leave much guesswork in the title. I started it first, then moved to another, then to the third and it finally made more sense to me initially, but now I have go back to the first book again and it is much more entertaining.

My back is better, but I am assuming from the steroids, as I still tend to walk like I am holding a grape between my butt cheeks. Spent another Saturday sim trading random historical periods, using only TPOs, Volume and VWAPs. I sit here and do replays at various speeds like a kid playing Xbox. The ability to pause and think at certain key inflection points has been a great study.

Still messing with visual settings. With each new chapter I read, or each new bit of information I understand, what I want to see keeps shifting. Or, I will catch myself ignoring something and turn up the volume on that area for awhile. But getting closer. The changes are minor, like moving the chart to a different area, or changing colors so that they are easy to distinguish without much thought but still not visually assaulting to me. When I stop to look at a chart now, everything is very clear, but in the middle of the trading day the less thinking the better some times.