I have been infatuated with trading for almost 6 years now. I have made a lot and lost a lot. I have felt invincible and felt inconsolable. And still, every day, every night even, I watched this thing move and try to understand more about it. So many times I know more than believe, probably from having believed I knew more than I did in the past. It is a transistion, building up and tearing down and building up again.

My judgement carries more weight in my own opinion today than at any time in the past, and yet my past carries more scars than I have recovered from. But today I feel healthy, in balance, still gunshy but not as concerned about it. I am in a good place, criticizing myself because i do know better than what I do many times, and trying to encourage myself to accept that now is now, and then is then.

Crude can be so powerful in K period. I love that about it. It picks a direction sometimes, and goes off. Usually because too many traders are on the wrong side. Crude does bite. But it will also ignore you if you want to ride and don't get in the way.

Although, today I was wishing I were an ES trader.

My understanding of what CL is doing is nearly killing it. My TRUST in my understanding, is still on the weak side.

I understand why, and I know the reason is not related to analysis. I have felt like I OWNED the crude market before. And it was ready to accept my invitation to prove me wrong. I set the stage, it came in smiling.

Lack of respect, loss of fear, those are dangerous things. Today I work on knowing WHEN to press, when to stand aside. And not identifying it as "fear".

There are three global level categories of what feels like it might be fear, for me. One is related to being unsure about something, getting into a trade because it might work this time, but not really "knowing". The other is related to "knowing" things are not right, but the craving to be in the trade is too strong. And the third is simply dealing with uncertainty.

But three completely different things, that trigger similar interior responses. Some chemical is released by the brain, that is basically the same chemical and does not know the difference, is my theory.

I am separating them, questioning them, experiencing them, being in the space with them, getting to know them as three completely different things. And out of that I expect to build my confidence, because I will know which is which.

I continue to "edit" posts rather than make a new one, trying to keep my posts limited in number.

What happens when the ON sessions open in/out of balance/range?

Today I saw a wedge form, and then break, and did not jump in. That is gunshy.

I used to describe in detail to my coworker what crude was going to do and was wrong maybe 20% of the time. I would previously define support and resistance and have it then be respected as if I knew something.

But I coupled that ability with a desire to get back something I had lost someplace else. I had "discovered" a way to get it all back.

And, I had worked so hard to learn that new "discovery" that I pretty much deserved it. Had earned it. Had proven it.


Now I wrestle with the outcome of the grande finale that I orchestrated. I got thrown to the ground hard, so hard that I was done.

Months passed, and I made my way into other things. Was glad to have trading be in my past.

But inside I knew the problem was not the market, or the analysis, or the methodology... it was inside. It was something about me, not the market.

And today I see so many things that I think I could take advatgage of. I know crude oil extremely well. But I am not yet sure whether it is my "knowing" talking, or my desire for something else. I think I am over that, and that I have decided that I really do just enjoy trading. I do enjoy it, I love to learn, research, contemplate, and then see it when it comes alive.

I will finish this thought later. I am tired, and have given myself enough honesty to digest for one evening.

GaryD 

My understanding of what CL is doing is nearly killing it. My TRUST in my understanding, is still on the weak side. I understand why, and I know the reason is not related to analysis. ... Lack of respect, loss of fear, those are dangerous things. Today I work on knowing WHEN to press, when to stand aside. And not identifying it as "fear". There are three global level categories of what feels like it might be fear, for me. One is related to being unsure about something, getting into a trade because it might work this time, but not really "knowing". The other is related to "knowing" things are not right, but the craving to be in the trade is too strong. And the third is simply dealing with uncertainty. ... I am separating them, questioning them, experiencing them, being in the space with them, getting to know them as three completely different things. And out of that I expect to build my confidence, because I will know which is which.

GaryD 

Today I saw a wedge form, and then break, and did not jump in. That is gunshy. I used to describe in detail to my coworker what crude was going to do and was wrong maybe 20% of the time. I would previously define support and resistance and have it then be respected as if I knew something. But I coupled that ability with a desire to get back something I had lost someplace else. I had "discovered" a way to get it all back. And, I had worked so hard to learn that new "discovery" that I pretty much deserved it. Had earned it. Had proven it. Now I wrestle with the outcome of the grande finale that I orchestrated. I got thrown to the ground hard, so hard that I was done. Months passed, and I made my way into other things. Was glad to have trading be in my past. But inside I knew the problem was not the market, or the analysis, or the methodology... it was inside. It was something about me, not the market. And today I see so many things that I think I could take advantage of. I know crude oil extremely well. But I am not yet sure whether it is my "knowing" talking, or my desire for something else. I think I am over that, and that I have decided that I really do just enjoy trading. I do enjoy it, I love to learn, research, contemplate, and then see it when it comes alive.

Thank you for posting these. Your inner journey becomes stronger and as you keep trying hard to discover the mechanics of your mind you are well poised to take advantage of them. As you have discovered, having that 80% win rate in your analysis was not the key (it was only part of the key), the key was inside you all the time.

The unlocking that happens with consistent work on yourself is an unlocking of the self, developing mindfulness to the various states we are trading from, why we are trading and what action needs to be taken next - however you have spent such a gigantic amount of time in hining your analysis skills observing the market that you probably know what needs to be done. At that point action triumphs everything.

The wise Indian sages have defined various ways to achieving that state....

one is dnyanayog - discovery through knowledge

one of them is karmayog - discovery through action (action as a guiding principle)

another is bhaktiyog - discovery through faith / belief / trust (your first sentence). [I took your advice to heart many moons ago and that too qualified as bhaktiyog.]


Indian scriptures provide many keys to unlock yourself to receive the infinite bounty the markets have to offer.

Respect and best for your continued progressive trading journey.

What they do. Break, hold, not even be touched. Any of those says something.

And then add market profile, the study of the motion itself...

Wednesday, may 15, 2013


We have opened below range and presently OTFing down.




It is about 15 minutes ahead of the EIA report. I am concerened about shorting into this major structure on the time chart. Seeing a lot of absorbtion ahead of the report, which could just be locking in profits.





Today I am in conflict about direction and flat.

Cumulative Delta is rising as price is falling

Longshot, but support is support until it isn't. CD still trying to rise