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  #1791 (permalink)
 
Traderwolf's Avatar
 Traderwolf 
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GaryD View Post

I got out at breakeven, not about to hold through the electronic close for anything, and then went out to run some errands. Now it hits my target...

Just took out the major high

Is this related to the oil inventory numbers? It appears as if they were released out of schedule. First time I have seen this.. That is really screwed up if that is the case...

API reports over 9 mln-barrel fall in crude supply - MarketWatch

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  #1792 (permalink)
 
GaryD's Avatar
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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Traderwolf View Post
Is this related to the oil inventory numbers? It appears as if they were released out of schedule. First time I have seen this.. That is really screwed up if that is the case...

API reports over 9 mln-barrel fall in crude supply - MarketWatch

Forex Calendar @ Forex Factory


No, it is all eyes on Egypt.

Don't think of this as just any oil producing country, Egypt owns the Suez Canal. It is one of the most important shipping lanes in the world for oil. If ships have to go around it, it can add weeks in shipping time, which adds expense.

And, the canal charges a toll, which is a huge income source for Egypt, and there is potential for it to become a target/prize if there is war. Civil war is what I am referring to.

https://www.eia.gov/countries/regions-topics.cfm?fips=wotc&trk=p3

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  #1793 (permalink)
 
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 GaryD 
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I bought in "A" period, despite the open auction, thought it tested lower and then was headed higher. I was trading as much on what I knew of the news as anything else, plus the gap higher, but then got stopped out for about 30-40 ticks all in.

So I decided to watch instead of get caught up in the news, and could see huge volume selling into it, but there was no way in hell I was going to short today. And did not feel like trading confused. That is why I just watched. Finally bought again at the close, and then got out ahead of the 45 minutes of anything goes. So I am actually down a few hundred, despite being correct on direction.

Not concerned about that really, this is a very unusual event, and I have not seen this type of market many times before. If ever. There was Libya, I remember that failry well. There was the Egyptian elections. I can;t reember much else like this.

A lot of volume was taking place today, more than I am used to, and I do not have much experience trading through things like this.

If this blows over, which it may, the risk premium will become a smart move in hindsight but no longer valid. If it goes wrong, black swanish, there is no ceiling for the "future".

My long into the pit close was a great trade, and I actually considered adding in after I was in it and it came back some, but thought to myself that is just gambling. The market can open anywhere compared to the close, volume was gone, and I had things to get done before my wife got home.

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  #1794 (permalink)
 
GaryD's Avatar
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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  #1795 (permalink)
 
GaryD's Avatar
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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"The army has given a deadline of about 16:30 local time (14:30 GMT) on Wednesday for the crisis to be dealt with."

Current Cairo time is 13:16 = 07:16EST



Equity Products

Wednesday, July 3rd
12:15pm Close
5:00pm Open

Thursday, July 4th
10:30am Trading Halt
5:00pm Trading Resumes

Friday, July 5th
Regular Day



NYMEX & COMEX Products

Wednesday, July 3rd
Regular Day

Thursday, July 4th
12:15pm Trading Halt
5:00pm Trading Resumes

Friday, July 5th
Regular Day




Volume could be very light today causing whippy moves. I have been treaing this Egypt event similar to FOMC. 90% watching, 10% considering trading.

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  #1796 (permalink)
 
GaryD's Avatar
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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Vwap flattening out ahead of the Egypt announcement. Price ran up overnight to break 102, and is balancing between there and about 100.80.





Bought 2 contracts at the push down around the pit open, closed one +12, other +29 as price consolidates around the upper IB. Price is very whippy and moves are tight so far.




If things go smoothly, this premium will unwind, but it may not occur today as many traders will make their moves and be gone early. But it seems like a difficult thing to conceptualize by watching the news. They have an elected president, by popular vote, and he is being ousted by the people, so there will most likely be an angry side either way, and they people have been in the streets numbering 20 million by what I have read. That is huge. Emotions are high, adrenaline is high there.

Even if it does not go smoothly, there is a decent premium already applied to crude, and so far there is nothing known that would impact the canal.

This is not a "normal" market today, so understandingcould be compromised. There is no better edge in trading than experience, and this type of event is hard to gain experience in.

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  #1797 (permalink)
 
GaryD's Avatar
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
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Huge two-sided trade took place in that bar. More volume than the highest pit close bar yesterday. While delta shows the sellers were dominant, price went nowhere as those orders were absorbed by passive buyers.

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  #1798 (permalink)
 
GaryD's Avatar
 GaryD 
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The EIA burst was short-lived, and price swings back to await Egypt.

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  #1799 (permalink)
 
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 GaryD 
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Overhead stop run, back to balance.

The trade today has been to fade the extremes as this broadening shape forms, but the volume into those trades is too intense, and they are only good trades in hindsight.

Still flat sitting +41

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  #1800 (permalink)
 
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 GaryD 
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This chart of the RTH session shows better how tricky today has been so far.

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Last Updated on August 5, 2013


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