CL is fighting to hold the 92 low.



A lot of whipsaw consolidation.




A moment of clarity; while that is what I used to despise about crude oil, I am not surprised, frustrated, upset, confused, thinking crude is schizo, etc. Today, it just is. Volatiltiy is opportunity, and crude is much slower to me today than years ago. And more predictable.

What IS frustrating to me, is trying to get anything of value out of the volume ladder. But today, for the first time ever, but only for a few minutes, I saw something there. That is mildly encouraging.

Wait, why are the bars not aligned with the ladder? There are several things over the last few days telling me something is majorly wrong with my computer. This could be an indicator bug, and if this was the only issue...

GaryD 

GDP 8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET Chicago PMI 9:45 AM ET Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index 11:00 AM ET

Since you are now putting these news items on your radar, a little info:

GDP should be a particularly interesting number tomorrow, with the Advance # last time being negative and throwing everyone for a loop. Anything in the negative to 0.1 or 0.2% range would be IMO a shocker (to the downside), as everyone thinks the -0.1% was very much a lowball figure. Anything 0.3% or above is expected, at least from my point of view.

Just for your own notes, if you are not aware, Chicago PMI is released 3 minutes early to subscribers at 9:42am, and often we get a reaction then if there is a surprise (not so much at 9:45 with the embargo release as market already has the number at this point).

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index -- never heard of it, and nobody cares about this number. Slight ditto for Kansas City Fed number, though if it's a big surprise it may get a little attention. As far as the manufacturing numbers go, Dallas Fed and Empire State can garner some attention, but Richmond and Kansas City manufacturing numbers are pretty much non-events. The Philly Fed number and ISM PMI are the biggest manufacturing numbers to watch out for.

GaryD 

What IS frustrating to me, is trying to get anything of value out of the volume ladder. But today, for the first time ever, but only for a few minutes, I saw something there. That is mildly encouraging. Wait, why are the bars not aligned with the ladder? There are several things over the last few days telling me something is majorly wrong with my computer. This could be an indicator bug, and if this was the only issue...

Re load and down load data

I get this every day

This is why I hate ninja trader

It never works like it should, I spend half my morning making sure every thing is correct

Grrrrrr

josh 

Since you are now putting these news items on your radar, a little info: GDP should be a particularly interesting number tomorrow, with the Advance # last time being negative and throwing everyone for a loop. Anything in the negative to 0.1 or 0.2% range would be IMO a shocker (to the downside), as everyone thinks the -0.1% was very much a lowball figure. Anything 0.3% or above is expected, at least from my point of view. Just for your own notes, if you are not aware, Chicago PMI is released 3 minutes early to subscribers at 9:42am, and often we get a reaction then if there is a surprise (not so much at 9:45 with the embargo release as market already has the number at this point). Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index -- never heard of it, and nobody cares about this number. Slight ditto for Kansas City Fed number, though if it's a big surprise it may get a little attention. As far as the manufacturing numbers go, Dallas Fed and Empire State can garner some attention, but Richmond and Kansas City manufacturing numbers are pretty much non-events. The Philly Fed number and ISM PMI are the biggest manufacturing numbers to watch out for.

Thanks Josh.

1:37AM, Friday, Never went to bed, talking with my wife, tv on, charts running in the corner of the room. Background color is white now, not black, and it casts this glow that is hard to walk by without looking.

Minor DPTL below possible washout caught within 10 ticks, on a background of new-equity-high rance correlative divergence, into the CL pit close reversal failure, blew out LOD prior significant support, 1pm volume head fake. Daily VWAP has been responding very well. IB on CL changed. Trading feeling good, calm, clear, fun.

% wins looking like 70%+ this week, great RR, great PF, cannot find a complaint in the performance report so far, maybe that I still often bail too early, but what I am also seeing is there are equal number of times that early profit taking works for me, but it is beyond backtesting because there is to much to have to program, and of equal importance, personal mindset.

Enjoying CL analysis thread, still feeling awkward about it though.

If that mDPTL becomes the brick wall... trading never lets you put your guard down.

GaryD 

... it casts this glow that is hard to walk by without looking. . . . If that mDPTL becomes the brick wall... trading never lets you put your guard down.

This something I have thought about:

I want to be a trader but I don;t want trading to be a cat and mouse game.

It should be more like a Pop n Mom store monopoly where you dictate the terms and customers (trades) keep flocking to you even if you have irregular timings and curt checkout girls. :-)

However that entails longer timeframes and bigger stops.

Being a rich trader should mean lots of time on hands - not simply having a pile of cash which you watch fluctuate tick by tick.

Does that make sense?

I often seek your guidance in my replies and this is one of those posts.

Very solid week. My performance numbers were much better, my level of calm and clarity very high, found myself laughing many times. I am still not holding for my targets like I think I should, but my targets also fail, and I am holding longer when the timing seems right, so nothing much to complain about this week. Good risk management, good timing, patience was not even a consideration, it just existed.

iqgod 

This something I have thought about: I want to be a trader but I don;t want trading to be a cat and mouse game. It should be more like a Pop n Mom store monopoly where you dictate the terms and customers (trades) keep flocking to you even if you have irregular timings and curt checkout girls. :-) However that entails longer timeframes and bigger stops. Being a rich trader should mean lots of time on hands - not simply having a pile of cash which you watch fluctuate tick by tick. Does that make sense? I often seek your guidance in my replies and this is one of those posts.

You know I have gone through issues with uncertainty, risk vs reward, value of time spent, importance of money, long swings versus scalps, having a job versus trading, all things you are questioning now. I have formed opinions about some of those things, then changed them, then maybe later changed them back or different again.

You also know that I gave up trading for awhile, could not take the pressure of trying to maintain running a business and studying / trading 24/7. And in that time I did not care if I ever took another trade. And that was not the first time I did not care if I traded again.

What I can say is different for me today is that I gave up trying to make complete sense of it, gave up trying to perfect it, gave up trying to knoww what is about to happen, gave up looking at my account balance, gave up thinking how much I could make if I did this or that.

What if you never did make any real money trading? Would you enjoy it then? Can you laugh at yourself, I mean genuine spontaneous laughter, when your stop gets hit?

There is no one-size-fits-all answer. You need to figure out where you belong in the mix, or if you even do. I know that I have gone back and forth on that decision, but am seeing today that the swing back and forth has to do with things that have no place in trading. Think on that.

CL Light Crude Analysis TPO/MP/VWAP/VPOC Still looks like some good confluence to the down side RTH developing value highs holding as resistance ETH vwap holding as resistance 104465 See if we can run below this IB again and continue down

For later review