Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
We had a snap back up yesterday but not before a lot of 2 way trading with a lot of indecision. Early part of yesterday was a tough trade and a tough read. Overall volume was just under 1.9 Million.
As per yesterday
Today we may see the sellers jump back in and sell some more at the somewhat recovered prices. That would be a sign that there may be real seller intent.
As it is I expect us to either move up on decent volume towards 2080 (but not necessarily get there in one day) or to have a low volume sideways day.
If sellers jump in, it means they sold, waited for buyers to jump in and quietly sold some more. A push down would mean they used yesterday to get some more shorts. So I think it's unlikely but if we do have a big push down today and we get below 2026, I'll be fairly bullish in the following days.
On the weekly profile, we can see thin trading above the value area and it's possible that the 2063.25 area will hold this market for a push down. As we move up through it, we should move fairly easily up to the weekly high.
We can see the late pullback at 2063.25 which has the potential at least for a short term hold. Then below us we have a late pullback to 2051 and a breakout point at 2046.25 which I am looking at for longs to jump in if we retest.
I would pretty much ignore yesterdays value area and look to play off these areas.
Here's a look at the Monday/Tuesday action. In terms of delta, by the time Tuesday closed out, we were down about 25k in delta. That's very little. So this is either the sellers being very clever and trapping buyers yesterday or the move down was nothing to write home about.
So far, Globex volume is below average.
Weekly Numbers
Range - 2033.25 -> 2077.50
Value - 2038.50 -> 2063.25
R1 - 2087.25, S1 2056.50
We've poked through the 2026 area just shy of our 2015 level. We had a lot of volume come in yesterday up to 2.3 Million. So sellers did take control and take out the longs that had clawed back the losses on Tuesday.
But as it's rollover day, I'm not trading it. If Order Flow is a major component of your trading and then you get a day where the flow of orders is moving positions from one contract to another, it changes the meaning of the order flow.
For example, if there's a lot of volume in an area and we then move up out of that area, we expect that the shorts there would have been stopped out.
But if the sellers were simply selling December and buying March contracts to roll to the new contract, then their selling has no directional bearing on short term action. So volume profile analysis and a lot of order flow analysis becomes meaningless.
The roll tends to take a few days now. It used to be that by Thursday lunchtime the volume would be in the new contract. Nowadays it tends to take longer. Sometimes a few days longer.
So for today and tomorrow - no trading for me but I will have an eye on the markets for when the volume shifts.
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
Into the pit session on Friday, we still had a little more volume in the December contract for ES but NQ and YM had March leading volume.
Lots of volume on Friday and a good move down. We have moved down past the old breakout point at 2007.50. So today looking to see if we can stay below that for more of a move down.
Here's a closer look at the levels but if it's selling off hard, don't look for any of them to hold.
Today , I'll be watching 2007.50 (old high) and 2004.75 as possible areas sellers will step in. Last week was the roll, so I'm not reading too much into the weeks activity, just really looking to see if sellers step in again today and take advantage. Of course, we have to keep an eye on the market 'snapping back' after any down day and if that happens it'll be fairly easy to play upside.
What will be more tricky will be a slow start. It is getting close to Christmas and that is a traditionally slow time. Also, we have had a lot of 'slow start' days that have had me asleep by 10:15 and then broken out leaving without me. Fading any ranges after the 3rd or 4th hit of any extreme is a little dangerous because of this.
Weekly Numbers Range - 1989.75 -> 2070.50
Value - wide range week - so best ignored
R1 - 2042.75, S1 1963.75
Daily Numbers
Range - 1989.75 -> 2025.50
Value - 2006-> 2019
Globex - 1987.75 -> 2003.25
Settlement - 1997.25
Today - 2004.75
Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
Another down day and a lot of volume - 2.8 million contract. It was also quite illiquid, so trading with small stops would have been a tricky proposition. I make no predictions as to where this is going but volume for this time of year is very high and other markets are moving down too this week.
The market pause at 2008.50 in the Globex session but we pushed up through that to 2012 before sellers came in. When they did come in, it was a fairly orderly sell of with continued lower lows and lower highs. We did look like a reversal was possible with the push up that commenced at 10:45am EST but sellers took it down again. The afternoon moved sideways and we've stayed in that afternoon range so far in this Globex session.
So one thing to look our for early on is that range holding (1980.25->1996.75) and that becoming a value area that we trade around for a while. Just one of the scenarios that is possible today.
We can see that area here. Shorting the top of this range would be an interesting trade if the opportunity to do so comes up early in the day as sellers could come in and push us down again to new lows again.
I think it's all about momentum - figuring out if it's lacking and fading the range OR if one side is dominant with excessive volume for a big move. I'm not a fan of fading moves like this but snap backs are common after big pushes down. For longs, you would have plenty of upside if we do get a snap back, so I think the key is to just not try to get in at the bottom, let it turn, see the volume and then stalk a position.
Also - as it's illiquid - I don't expect levels to hold to the tick (or even to the point) and I think it's going to be tough to use small stops.
Weekly Numbers
Range - 1989.75 -> 2070.50
Value - wide range week - so best ignored
R1 - 2042.75, S1 1963.75
Daily Numbers
Range - 1974.50 -> 2012.25
Value - 1981 -> 1994.50
Globex - 1980.25 -> 1993
Settlement - 1990
Today - 1980.25. 1996.75
Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
Well, that was a fairly big day. 3.3 Million contracts traded a move down, although the pit session had an almost 50 point range but settled at 1971.50, just 5 ticks below the open.
We are still holding the 1961 level but as a line in the sand and playing a break - I think levels will largely be ignored if we have the same sort of volume vs liquidity (aka limit orders) ratio that we had yesterday.
Yesterday we said.
And same thing again. We could just die out at any point or we could have another wild ride.
Volatility wise, the swings were huge yesterday and very often we were moving through prices trading only 40-60 contracts. Side by side, the first 90 minutes on the ES made Crude look slow. So if you trade the ES because it's relatively thick & slow compared to Crude and other thin markets, then this will be a challenge. Yesterday I didn't take a trade until after 11:30 when we were on the way down.
So for me today - just looking for momentum and stand aside if it's too wild/unreadable. The opportunity is there to make and lose money on days like this and I feel no real need to get involved. These days are the exception, not the rule and I don't mind passing on them at all.
Weekly Numbers
Range - 1961.50 -> 2012.25
Value - wide range week - so best ignored
R1 - 2042.75, S1 1963.75
Daily Numbers
Range - 1961.50 (globex) / 1963 -> 2011.25
Value - 1973 -> 1998
Globex - 1965.25 -> 1977.50
Settlement - 1971.50
Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
It is perhaps a little early to be back at it, so today I'm mostly just planning to observe.
If you look at the past 7 or 8 trading days, the volume has been very low. It should pick up a little today but it's unlikely to be in full swing.
I'm not really too interested in what happened over the past 2 weeks, so I have no weekly or daily profiles to look at today.
What I would be interested in today would be one side coming in aggressively. I doubt it will happen but I'm keeping an open mind.
If the participation is too low, then I wont trade it. Over the next few days, I am looking for us to build decent prices on decent volume so we build up some lines in the sand. As it is, I don't think we can rely on the past few weeks activity for that. If the volume can stay above 1.4 Million for the next few days, then I think we can have some levels that are significant.
Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread
Volume certainly seems to have returned to the markets. In fact, yesterday was quite similar to those days early in December. So first thing I think we look out for heading into today is even more volume coming in. Liquidity wasn't too bad but really not enough to contend with this amount of volume, so the volatility was high and I'm sure lots of people got taken out not taking it into account.
We took a hefty drop off the open and ranged around 2010-2018. Big down days can always have a snap back up the next day and for longs, I'd either like to see rejection of yesterdays low or a move through 2018-2020 area. I think up through 2020 would also be good for a long. Reverse for shorts too - would be good to see the 2018-2020 area hold for a short. That may have already occurred though as currently the Globex high is just above 2020.
The volatility yesterday was high. As such, I think part of the game today is getting a handle on the volatility and part is getting a handle on the direction. The swing sizes were extreme yesterday and we were moving 6,8, 10 and more points without much of a pullback to speak of. If this is a repeat of early December, then we would expect volumes and volatility to increase and for the market to continue heading south overall.
For me - I don't want to do too much within the 2010-2020 range, if we do rotate around there early on, I think I'll wait for a break before joining.
Daily Numbers
Range - 2009.50 -> 2040.50 (pit) / -> 2048.25 (globex)
Value - 2011.75 -> 2024.75
Globex - 2013 -> 2020.50
Settlement - 2016
Today only - 2018-2020
Long Term 2068.25, 2047, 2019.75, 2007.50, 1996, 1961, 1922.25, 1878.25, 1806
If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread