I've read one of his research paper a couple of days ago in which he explains in details the process he is using to make his predictions but I can't find it anymore.

I've read it rapidly and I have just barely scratch the surface but what I found very interesting is his idea that contrarily to "black swans" the events he calls "dragon kings" are perfectly predictable. Not long before that I had just read an interview of Jim Simons in which without giving any specific explanations he was suggesting the same kind of approach not to predict crash but in order to detected signs of major trends.

To be continued ?
@Fat Tails : I was hoping you could give us a crash course on Log Periodic Power Law But if you tell me that you also have barely understood Sornette I felt a little depress lol.

Fantastic thread - thank you Fat Tails for taking the time to lay out complex theory in plain English. Even my tiny brain can grasp the bulk of the ideas presented here.

Sometimes I toss around ideas about theory in my head when I'm mowing the lawn or doing other chores. It occurs to me that very often there exists a big difference between In Theory and In Practice.

I feel this is true in societies, politics and trading markets in general. As a group, human beings tend to spout fountains of grandiose notions (In Theory) but also tend to act differently than those notions (In Practice). I attribute this difference to the fact that we are very imperfect creatures (greed, fear, etc.) - which is one reason why I find this thread so interesting.

Which brings me around to my own personal theory of The Sucker Fish.


Like me the trader, The Sucker Fish is a small fish in a big ocean. Its primary goal is to keep from being eaten by bigger fish.

It has developed a clever tactic towards accomplishing this primary goal - attach itself to a shark. The shark can't eat you if your attached directly to the shark itself, plus you have the added bonus that other sharks will leave you alone as well.

Of course, that leaves the major conundrum - how do you attach yourself to a shark as a trader?

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