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That's a good observation, but there's more too it than that. People have definitely become worse drivers. Unfortunately, people seem to be dumber in general. They are spending too much time on facebook and twitter. I don't have a facebook account and I never will. The whole educational system is a big failure. We need to go back to basics like reading, writing, arithmetic in elementary school and forget the rest. In High School, more time needs to be devoted to Drivers Ed too.
More miles are being driven, which is one reason. The curve of deaths per billion of miles travelled is bottoming out - but it will never be smooth - or get to the bottom.
I think you make a good point about over confidence in skill level. Which I think also applies to becoming over confident in the higher safety of the car. i.e people assume they will be alright as they are in a safe car.
But there are plenty of other distractions in the car - satnav, more adhd kids = driving their parents nuts in the back seat, poorer health of drivers = more heart attacks at the wheel, more rednecks (evidenced by Trump being elected ) = higher percentage of people not wearing seatbelts, more podcasts = a deeper level of distracted thought while driving......
So, yeah, I agree - driverless cars are the way to go.