Permian Production Growth Creeps into the WTI Midland Forward Curve

https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/whitepapers/permian-production-growth-creeps-into-the-wti-midland-forward-curve.html

CRUDE OIL MARGINS EFFECTIVE 30TH JUNE

Maintenance margin as follows (Initial Margins, ie non-member rates will be 110% of these)
Tier 1 / Aug22 unchanged at $8350,
Tier 2 / Sep22 decreasing from $8250 to $8000, -$250
Tier 3 / Oct22 decreasing from $8000 to $7700, -$300
...
Tier 5 / Dec22 decreasing from $7500 to $7100, -$400
...
Tier 17 / Dec23 decreasing from $5800 to $5100, -$700
...
Tier 29 / Dec24 decreasing from $4500 to $3800, -$700

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2022/06/Chadv22-251.html

And back up again.... especially in the 2023 contracts...

CRUDE OIL MARGINS EFFECTIVE 8TH JULY

Maintenance margin as follows (Initial Margins, ie non-member rates will be 110% of these)
Tier 1 / Aug22 increasing from $8350 to $8600 +$250
Tier 2 / Sep22 increasing from $8000 to $8300, +$300
Tier 3 / Oct22 increasing from $7700 to $8100, +$400
Tier 4 / Nov22 increasing from $7300 to $8000, +$700
Tier 5 / Dec22 increasing from $7100 to $7900, +$800
Tier 6 / Jan23 increasing from $6900 to $7800, +$900
Tier 7 / Feb23 increasing from $6600 to $7600, +$1000
...
Tier 11 / Jun23 increasing from $5800 to $6400, +$600
...
Tier 17 / Dec23 increasing from $5100 to $5500, +$400
...
Tier 29 / Dec24 increasing from $3800 to $3850, +$50

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2022/07/Chadv22-260.html

Cross posting this from another thread as I feel its relevant here and one of the real reasons behind the super high crack spreads we currently seeing.

SMCJB 

On a slight tangent, everybody is quick to blame all sorts of reasons for the current cost of Gasoline and Diesel. Something that doesn't get much attention though is the impact China is having. These are two images from Platts/S&P Global website showing Chinas export of high end petroleum products. Exports are down 10 million tonnes from last year and even more since 2020. I believe these numbers are monthly so 10 million tonnes = 65 million barrels = 2.15 Million Barrels Day. That's equivalent to almost 2.5% of world crude oil production per day! https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/060722-china-oil-product-quotas.svg https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/03c069bb-6a29-4340-aaf9-f54fe8a4a8d0.svg

From John Kemp's daily newsletter. Sign up here.

HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers increased short positions in NYMEX WTI futures and options by +2 million bbl to 44 million bbl in the week to September 6, among the largest number of short positions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February. Bearish sentiment has been gradually building since the start of June as the economy slows under the combined impact of supply chain problems, inflation and rising interest rates:

SMCJB 

From John Kemp's daily newsletter. Sign up here. HEDGE FUNDS and other money managers increased short positions in NYMEX WTI futures and options by +2 million bbl to 44 million bbl in the week to September 6, among the largest number of short positions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February. Bearish sentiment has been gradually building since the start of June as the economy slows under the combined impact of supply chain problems, inflation and rising interest rates:

Go long!

Lot of the 'industry' guys I know are still more bullish than bearish, but all the 'macro' guys seem to be very bearish. I think the 'industry' guys look at supply and still see a tight market but the 'macro' guys see a wave of demand destruction here or coming.

damn ive been away for some time..confusing as ever though margjns on the front end are def higher

Hey @jokertrader or should I say stranger! Hope you've been well. Email me when you have time. Definitely interesting times in the energy markets. Got spanked in Crude in the hyperbolic move and corresponding curve shift after the invasion. Just about back to even (for crude) on the year now. Must say I'm a lot more focused on Natty at the moment* and that has been very nice to me! The moves (in Natty) have been insane.

Back on topic as I said a few posts back a "Lot of the 'industry' guys I know are still more bullish than bearish, but all the 'macro' guys seem to be very bearish. I think the 'industry' guys look at supply and still see a tight market but the 'macro' guys see a wave of demand destruction here or coming.". Something that would greatly change that is if the Indians (and/or Chinese but that's unlikely to happen) stopped buying the Russian crude that the rest of the world is shunning.

* For those that I don't know I started many many years ago as an oil trader but upon moving to the States gradually transitioned to Gas & Power. When I went out on my own 13 years ago I was 100% Natural Gas and stayed that way for several years. Then over the next 7 years I went from being all Natty to predominantly Crude. Post the Ukraine invasion I'm back to more than Natty than CL.

CRUDE OIL MARGINS EFFECTIVE 20TH SEPTEMBER

Maintenance margin as follows (Initial Margins, ie non-member rates will be 110% of these)
Tier 1 / Oct22 decreasing from $8600 to $8450 -$150
Tier 2 / Nov22 decreasing from $8300 to $7900, -$400
Tier 3 / Dec22 decreasing from $8100 to $7700, -$400
Tier 4 / Jan23 decreasing from $8000 to $7500, -$500
Tier 5 / Feb23 decreasing from $7900 to $7300, -$600
Tier 6 / Mar23 decreasing from $7800 to $7100, -$700
Tier 7 / Apr23 decreasing from $7600 to $6800, -$800
...
Tier 9 / Jun23 decreasing from $6900 to $6400, -$500
...
Tier 15 / Dec23 decreasing from $5800 to $5400, -$400
...
Tier 27 / Dec24 decreasing from $4100 to $3800, -$300

https://www.cmegroup.com/notices/clearing/2022/09/Chadv22-353.html