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Seasonals for lumber show downwards until October. Lumber price is close to its 10 year high.
As it is difficult to foresee, if lumber will make a further move upwards, I proceeded as follows:
Sold one lot at $388, placed another order just below $400, and placed the order for the third lot below the annual high. Stop at a close above the annual high.
I hold a long position in coffee, as the blooming period in Brazil approaches and the weather forecast is dry. COT data is bullish. My stop is close, as a change in the weather forecast will bring coffee price down again.
I also hold a long position in cocoa for months, covered by calls (currently CCZ C2100) above the market. The expected move upwards of the underlaying does not happen, but the options make money. COT data is bullish.
Lumber might get interesting after the hurricanes have gone. Seasonals are bearish for the next couple of weeks.
