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Index fund rebalancing starting Jan 9th will trigger 60-100K new corn longs. Interesting to note that index funds reduced corn longs in Friday’s CFTC report (corn –down 20K contracts). This should help the spread, as no such rebalancing should happen for soybeans.
The spread has reached the zone where it traded from end of June until early November. Thus, I use a close stop, and intend to close or reduce the position before the USDA report on January 12th.
Today (11 am Chicago Time, 18.00 Central European Time) the USDA report will be published. I do not expect it to be a big market mover for grains & beans. But you never know - these reports can include surprizes ...
I am still holding a position in the 5*CZ-2*SX spread, and I am still optimistic that it will move above 0 within the next couple of months (currently -53 c).
I re-entered the KW-W, and will liquidate it just below 20.
The arguments regarding these trades posted some time ago are still valid.
I was stopped out of the KW-W with a loss. There was a lot of rain in the KW area, that helped to improve quality of KW significantly.
I intend to liquidate the 5*CZ-2*SX spread early next week. The spread has moved up nicely, and is now significantly above 0. This trade, which I hold for several months and which currently shows a significant profit, is a good example that it is easier for me to beat the market longterm than shortterm.
I intend to reduce my trading of grains in the coming months, as we enter a weather market.
since stocks/usage is pretty high the spread has narrowed and could even go negative..i..e July less than Nov.
if there is a weather concern.. this might rise
am i reading this right?
trying to make sense of the past Hightower reports
