I could not trade today, which is good. I did not expect to see another all time high and I would have shorted the ES. And the absolute craziness of the market everyone one is expecting/demanding a .5 point Fed rate cut!!! I guess with unemployment lowest in 80 years and the indices all time highs, the economy is in very bad shape!!!!


Any way, on a good note my spread is much better now. I could not watch the charts today, but it looks like it was as low as -$100 intraday, which is a loss I would have accepted. It is -$200 at the close, but will watch it carefully Sunday night for an exit.

Also, I did exit the CADJPY at +40 PIPs. I almost gave my target earlier. But almost is never good in trading.

Have a good weekend.





K

A typical summer trading day on the ES, ugly. I could not get myself to even take a micro trade. I considered two trades ( below), but did not take any:



My YM/NQ spread got worst by $100 today, so I am still holding it for a BE close.

I did chat with a new trading friend over the weekend. He only trades using the EW principles. He shared few charts and showed me his equity curve. I was was very impressive and got me sold.



Since I am still searching for the meaning of life as well as a consistent trading method, I (re) read "the Elliot Wave book" and decided to try it. Again, low risk and small size. I traded few liquid stocks option spreads and micro Forex. Since he recommends that I only swing trade EW, I can do this in tandem with my day trading. Below are the FX and option spreads I took. I trade options with Tasty since they have a great platform at low cost.



I am still new with EW, so my wave count maybe incorrect.









K

I could never make anything useful out of EW principles. I always see multiple wave counts in real-time but only one ends up working out. If you can generate an edge from it, more power to you!


Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

mtzimmer1 

I could never make anything useful out of EW principles. I always see multiple wave counts in real-time but only one ends up working out. If you can generate an edge from it, more power to you! Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

Hi Mtzimmer1,
I have looked at it before and I said that it looks great only in hindsight, but my good friend said that I need longer time frames. He does mostly daily and 4H. He also said that the wave count is pretty much the channel I draw. We will see. I will just put those positions for now and they are low ( defined) risk. I have to put some real money on the line, otherwise I will never watch/learn.
I will post updates as the trades proceed.
Thanks
K

My EURGBP short did not pan out. It was a loss of 23 PIPs and few dollars. I am still holding CADCHF ( at a small loss). Stop loss on that pair is much higher. My EW friend said that I should been looking at only daily, and maybe 4 hour charts. I will make that change in future trades.
My option spreads still around BE.





K

kareem40 

Hi Mtzimmer1, I have looked at it before and I said that it looks great only in hindsight, but my good friend said that I need longer time frames. He does mostly daily and 4H. He also said that the wave count is pretty much the channel I draw. We will see. I will just put those positions for now and they are low ( defined) risk. I have to put some real money on the line, otherwise I will never watch/learn. I will post updates as the trades proceed. Thanks K

Good luck with Elliot Wave. I have thought that too, about looking great only in hindsight. My problem was always that there were too many possibilities ahead of time, and I couldn't see the "right" one until after the fact.

If you can figure it out and put it to use, you're better at it than I am. I certainly hope you are. It will be interesting to see if it helps you.

Bob.

bobwest 

Good luck with Elliot Wave. I have thought that too, about looking great only in hindsight. My problem was always that there were too many possibilities ahead of time, and I couldn't see the "right" one until after the fact. If you can figure it out and put it to use, you're better at it than I am. I certainly hope you are. It will be interesting to see if it helps you. Bob.

Hi Bob,
Thank you for the feed back. I am not 100% sold either, but trading it small and with low risk. I honestly think it's the only way to test anything to do with trading, throw little money at it and watch it live. Too much money and you ( or I) will not follow the rules. So far, I only found "breaking news" trades are the only sure thing. You may have the absolute best set up/indicator there is; then we get a Trump tweet!

K

Here are my daily trades:

Two trades, ES, MES, and I finally closed my NQ/YM Spread. The spread was up $100 but by the time I placed market orders, it had moved some for +$84. It was not a fun trade and even though I saw similar draws on the historical chart. It was almost $600 against me at one time last week, which is higher than anything I have hand tested. But finally the market normalized ( or back to chaos) and I bailed with some profit.



The ES trade ( First arrow), was mostly news, but it helped to have a wide spread bar with volume and resistance above. I took profit around the bottom channel, a long term support. Then I took a second MES trade as the resistance held and additional "bad" news. I traded smaller ( MES) since I did not want to give my locked profits back to the pros. Today, I watched the 20 minute chart since I had other work obligations and had less screen time. Took profit around the same place ( re-test of demand), which held as am right this post.



A good day, low stress and no mistakes. I am up $461 for the day.

K

I was still busy with work today and really should not have traded at all, but I did. I was trying to force a trade, and worst yet, force a quick exit so I can focus at work. I did not trade well. I also went for another spread trade, but due to my previous draw, I was careful to exit for 1/4 of typical profit. Also spreads have be watched all the time.

Here are my trades today:



1) Short ES, which I still cannot figure why I sold. Looking at the bar, it had wide spread and highest volume on the chart, but closed in the middle. Which means buyers were very much present. A long there would been an easy very low risk 2-4 points ( daily target).

2) Short 3 MES. I added to a loser, but it was a good set up and an okay trade that took little heat. Resistance above, close at the lows then volume come in with selling.

My target was the gold line below, test for demand. Later I got restless and took my exit early, above the set target.

I have a couple of private questions about my spread trade and in the next post I will explain a quick and simple way to take to try it.



A bad trading day, with mistakes, draw and high stress. I got impatient with my first entry and my exit. I am up $94 for the day.

K

Here is a quick and easy way to trade this spread. First, few notes:

• To begin with trade very small. I recommend 1/1 Micro lots
• It's always long one instrument, short the other.
• It does not have a stop loss. Draws can reach $500 ( just recently).
• You cannot and should not leg out. In as a pair and out the same.
• Target ( on 4-5 micro lots) is $50-$200.
• Target may take 5 minutes to weeks to reach.
• Profits come and go very quickly. Arb/HFT traders are always faster than you ( me). You never get what you see when you decide to exit, unless you are lucky!
• This can be done with other Co-integrated instruments, but not as easy due to volatility levels.
• On this trade only, you may add to a loser, but still small.

I took snapshots of the progression of today's spread. All of these are from today's session. I closed it for +$23, but it could have easily reached $90-100.


Look at the % gain/loss for each instrument. Since they are close, do nothing.


Later in the day NQ is +.24%, which YM is down .08%. Here you can sell 3 micro lots of NQ and buy 3 YM at the same time.


Here NQ went from +.24 to +.2 and YM from -.08 to -.01 which should give you some profit.


Here is later in the day. If I had waited on my spread. Look at the price. The NQ's move to +.05% and YM to only -.05%. In $ terms, an additional 16 NQ points and less 10 YM points; or on three micros +96-5= + 91 additional profit).

I hope that makes sense. If not, do nothing.

Please give your thanks for the competition if you like the Journal:

FIO Journal Challenge - July 2019 Edition w/NinjaTrader Thank you in advance, K

Thank you,
K