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FYI: For now, I want to continue the journal with the same system. I only would like to define hard rules for entry, but not sure yet what to base this on. There were trades lost, while the odds looked good.
In the meanwhile, I am looking into alternatives based on the same data.
In the Monday files, when I add filters on IBL, on ‘No gap’ and on IB position at 9:30 inside prior day HiLo range, the short trade gives most points, 1168 pts (32 win/58 loss) with SL20.
After adding filters on IB HiLo (excluding the extreme values) and prior day HiLo range (also filtering out the extreme higher values), the best results are for the short trade, 9:30-15:00 SL40 1334 pts (36 win/32 loss). The long trade (with same filters) gives 262 pts but a better win % 43 win vs 25 losses.
In the Tuesday files, when I add filters on IBS, on ‘No gap’ and on IB position at 9:30 inside prior day HiLo range, the long and short trades give similar outcomes (Long 1144 pts 70 win/72 loss with SL35 / Short 1142 84 win/58 loss with SL60).
After adding filters on IB HiLo (to exclude the extreme values) and prior day HiLo range (also filtering out the extreme higher values), the best results are for the short trade, 10:30-15:30 SL55 973 pts (25 win/10 loss). Because Powell testifies at 15:00, I’ll take the following trade:
DAX Short trade
Entry 10:30 @ 14595
Exit 15:00 @
SL 35 pts
Result -35 pts
Historical results with this setup:
891 pts (23 win/12 loss)
In the Wednesday files, when I add filters on IBL, on ‘No gap’ and on IB position at 9:30 inside prior day HiLo range, the best long trade gives 1285 pts 81 win/55 loss with SL60.
After adding filters on prior day HiLo and prior day OpCl range and the day before (filtering out the extreme higher values), the long trade has the best results:
DAX Long trade
Entry 11:30 @ 14612
Exit 14:30 @ 14592 (SL)
SL 20 pts
Result -20 pts
Historical results with this setup:
362 pts (12 win/5 loss)
Let's see
edit 12:15: Chop day and entry was on the higher end of the range
In the Thursday files, when I add filters on IBL, on ‘No gap’ and on IB position at 9:30 inside prior day HiLo range, the long trade gives a slightly better result (985 pts) than the short trade, but the short trade win % is much better (809 pts 79 win/45 loss with SL50) but 6-7 pts profit per trade is far from enough.
After playing with other filters, I will have to conclude not to trade today as nothing seem to give consistent results.
Today @ 10:00 (CET) IFO. Positive numbers but price didn't really move. I guess that will start at 11:00
In this post ( Check post) I analysed IFO days. I didn’t split the outcome per weekday, which I will do now for the Friday.
The green marked ones have pretty good results, be it on a low number of trades. The 10:00-10:30 bar is green (but only 4 points). I'm not sure how to handle the hour difference between USA and Europe (daylight saving time), so to be on the safe side, the trade will run till 14:30.
DAX Long trade
Entry 11:00 @ 14739
Exit 14:30 @ 14714
SL 25 pts
Result -25 pts
Historical results with this setup:
322 pts (6 win/0 loss)
Let's see
edit 13:06: Even a 6 win out of 6 trades couldn't bring profits
This week 120 points loss. Better results would be welcome.
Thanks for following and have a good weekend
FYI: For now, I want to continue the journal with the same system. I only would like to define hard rules for entry, but not sure yet what to base this on. There were trades lost, while the odds looked good.
In the meanwhile, I am looking into alternatives based on the same data.
A bit late as I had everything ready, but then the IBL turned into IBS and the gap closed, so had to re-do the prep work.
In the Monday files, when I add filters on IBS, on ‘Up gap & closed’ and on IB position at 9:30 inside prior day HiLo range, the results for a long trade looks better, especially after excluding the extremes on prior day HiLo range, prior day OpCl range and the day before.
DAX Long trade
Entry 9:30 @ 14791
Exit 12:00 @ 14809
SL 30 pts
Result 18 pts
Historical results with this setup:
324 pts (8 win/3 loss)
In the Tuesday files, when I add filters on IBL and on ‘Up gap & not closed’, the results for a long trade (648 pts 26 win/19 loss SL50 10:00-15:00) look better than the short trade.
After excluding the extremes on prior day HiLo range, prior day OpCl range and the day before, the results are not getting better.
