Brief update.

Nothing exciting in terms of my trading during the last 30 trading days. Still 3 steps forward, 2 steps backward. P&L is stalling but confidence and discipline still in bull market.

I'm glad that I have more time to trade now and hoping to steadily improve my size with same consistent execution.

Weekly update

Still plodding along..

Flat P&L but quite happy with steady improvement in my execution & discipline. No more Monster lossess.

Next chapter is 'scaling up'. (I currently trade 100 SPY max. Will aim to push it up to 200 before the end of 2022)

Sep 26 Monday trading summary

Managed to have screen time for the full RTH period (after quite some time).

Despite some over-trading (6 round trips is too much in my books), I was pleased with my execution and emotional management.

1st trade was Long from open. I followed my bullish stats. However, price was struggling with signs of rollover. Since USD and VIX were both strong, I grabbed small profit & switched my bias from Long to short. (Generally not very easy for my stubborn and inflexible personality)

My next trade was a short with a very tight and small stop. 'Testing the waters' type trade. Didn't work out. BE exit.

I decided to wait till the Opening range Low was taken out, ( to confirm the strenght of Bears) and then started my final short trade. Though the scaling in and out looks chaotic, there was a method to this mad execution. After every new Low, I shorted the bounce. Very little heat for all my trades and very rewarding in the end.

Sep 28 Summary

Another good day of execution of bullish bias.

1st trade - 1/2 size Long @ open and then scaled in during OR downswing.

Went flat when signs of distrubution @ EU close.

2nd trade - After new highs post EU, went long again 1/2 size - Flat @ Market close.

I am seeing more value in EMA crossover system and lately scaling in/out at better locations.

Graduated to futures (again).

I have moved on from SPY to MES. 1st day went well really well

1st trade was short from open. Followed my signal diligently. Instead of my usual EOD hold, I went flat before EU close. Quite pleased that I'm reading internals & momentum better lately and today managed to catch 60 out of the 70 points swing

2nd trade was short again from 3660. Profitable trade but not so lucky this time.
My profit target of 3610 proved to be too ambitious. 10 pts profit for this one. Not bad but could have been lot more (if I had factored in gap down in my ATR calculation).

Overall, a good day and slowly getting all my pieces together.

Just when I thought I cracket it, this happens

My bullish bias was executed flawlessly. Best possible entry @ 30 and then scale in during pullback @ 35.
Scale out @ 55 (vwap test) and then full exit @ 80.

Grabbed 90% of the daily range and 70 points gain. So far, so good.

Despite my best efforts to remain humble, I think I became 'mildly' overconfident/stubborn. You know what happens next!. Gave up 50 points on my next 'End of the day' vwap long trade. (These are trades which are NOT monitored by me without stops or targets and closes automatically @EOD).

I still see this as experimental stage of my execution and hence not too upset about giving up the profits. Infact, the losing trade's entry locaiton, vwap, was perfect too. Now I should focus on exiting unprofitable trades gracefully

Performance Update

This week feels like a watershed moment

1. I successfully removed my PermaBear layer. (I don't even remember the direction of my recent trades during my reviews).
2. Unwavering discipline in executing my statistical bias. (The belief in my stats is ingrained now)
3. Not getting (too) excited or upset with my individual trade performances.



Finally, I managed to combine the ingredients of my recipe.
a. Statistical edge from Past historical data
b. Market behaviour from Current Price action
c. Internals & Momentum for predicting Future Price movemens.

Future goals - 1. Short term - Exit management (particularly of losing trades)
2. Medium term - Position size (increasing MES upto 5)
3. Long term - Learn Pine script / Python to automate some aspects of execution.

I am becoming more convinced now that trading can provide income like a full-time job. Though I have kept my max gain/loss as $500 (for now), I'm still in the experimental stage to assess the effectiveness of my strategy. It will be pushed slowly to $2000 over the next 12 months and will aim for 50k income in 2023.

Positive start to October

My signals were bullish today and I executed my long entry with good discipline.

Entered Long @ 24 during the opening swing pullback. Got out @ 64.

Despite getting 40 pts out of today's 60 ATR, some impatience towards the end and couldn't wait for the exhaustion move upto 3680. Will try harder next time.

Still long bias but poor risk reward @ the 3660s. If we get a vwap test, I will go long again in 45-50 area. Not sure whether we will make a new HOD and test 3700 today as relative volume is pathetic. However, ES can drift up on low volume!

Edit - Expected PB to vwap didn't happen. However, 3700 was tested (without me).

My Short signal didn't work today.

Got in at 3750 and out at 3800. Pretty much the ATR! Saving grace was that it was a narrow ATR. Hence the loss was not big and essentially gave up Monday's gain. That's ok.

If I have to trade this day again, I still would have taken the short but perhaps bailed out when new HOD was made @ 3760 above overnight high rather than holding it till EOD.

Maximising gain when signals work and minimising pain when it doesn't is the goal. Work in progress.

Refining my signals

I use historical data of the past 20 years in getting my trade signals. Though they are mostly reliable, I noticed a pattern that when we have a big gap days, it tends to be unreliable.

I now realised that I only considered the opening location i.e above Y-H or below Y-L and not taken into account the gap magnitude (in terms of % of 5 day ATR).

For instance, yesterday's opening price above the high of previous day's range was generally bearish but this disappeared if the gap up was more than 50% ATR.

Will add this to my future analysis.