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My bias is long today, based on the stats that gap down open after a bearish day tends to have a bullish close. However, the range is likely to be below average and hence my targets are smallish.
Buying the lows is obviously risky and also not easy. Hence, I started with just 1 contract and building up now. Scaled in and out twice and will likely load up again. I liked the fact that I was calm and added only after seeing strength. I don't think the bull move is over yet and my target is Y-close.
Though I closed my shop @ EU close of 9 AM Pacific time (9:30 PM local time), I let my runner stay and it emerged as a winner. It's beautiful to look at.
My new mantra is simple. If I have a losing position @ EU close, I'm flat. If I have a winner, it stays till the End of the Day RTH or until profit/stop hits which is usually 100% daily ATR, like yesterday. 'One Cancel Other' orders and tight risk management helps me sleep soundly. Making money when you are sleeping is so satisfying.
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P.S. I edited 2 breakeven scalps for the sake of simplicity.
I always find something useful in random YouTube videos about game theory and this 5 minutes clip below has the potential to change our trading performance.
This unexcitingly titled 'K-level reasoning' is actually pretty interesting.
My bias is bullish today for DAX. However, the price action so far has been bearish. Hence, the only trade so far is a short and that's a very clinical one. Entry was picture perfect during the 're-test' and exit was not shabby. 50 points.
Still waiting for Y-L to give up and then I will buy the lows. Time is not ripe for buying yet. The main dilemma is whether to buy or not if there is no test of Y-L. I don't know yet as the buyers don't appear strong and still very tentative.
My 1st trade was a short despite my bullish bias and grabbed 50 points.
After a lot of sideways price action, we made a new LOD. Y-L was tested as I expected and outlined in my previous post. However, I got a bit too excited and bought a way too soon. Again! But the good news is I didn't panic as I considered the support as reliable and stats were pretty strong too. Moreover, I had the cushion of earlier profit. Lo and behold, we made a quick U turn and I grabbed 35+ points.
My 3rd and final trade was a bit of a disappointment but still a small winner. I was expecting a bullish close BEFORE US Open which unfortunately did not happen. So I went flat and as expected price hit my target 10 mins later. However, no regrets as I don't feel ready to monitor DAX during US opening hours which is usually fast pace. Moreover, my priority now is ES. I already made enough i.e 100+ points in DAX and don't want to be too greedy.
I had a short bias and came out swinging. I quickly reached my max size 3 but chickened out with the rebound. That's the usual problem with max size as minor adverse price movement can quickly wipe out gain and before long you will be in red. Anyways, I decided to scale back and eventually went flat for a small loss.
Since I had a good day with DAX, I wanted to call it a day but price turned bearish again with another opportunity to short. Though it was not a pretty looking execution, I took a couple of stab and got something out of it. 5+ points is nothing to be happy about but I liked he way I held my nerves after giving up gains and persisted with my short bias.
Breakeven DAX today on the 24th of October 2024. However, trading was not pretty.
I started with a short bias but when it didn't work out I didn't cover my loser. Please note that it's very common for me to hold my position without stops and often for 4 to 6 hours but in this case that was NOT my plan. However, I did anticipate a sharp short covering rally at some point and hence didn't panic. I gracefully got out of my short position during a deeper pullback with minimal loss and easlily made that up with another short just before US open.
Since I NEVER add to my loser, I'm not too concerned about these silly looking trades. It also allows to test the robustness of my system/signals which are based on holding my trades from open to close, intraday.
My short bias was executed well but with only 1 contract. +20 points and hence not too disappointed.
Though it was very tempting to scale up, the price action was so choppy for the opening hour and it was a low confidence trade. Volume was also low. However, during the 2nd hour, we gained some traction and started making lower lows but still nothing significant. I know the flood gates will open eventually and I waited for the final push before EU close. That's exactly what we got and I'm glad I was patient.
After a lot of deliberation, I have decided to take a detox from journaling.
Though I find the process very helpful, it's also distracting me from the core essence of trading. i.e. Making money.
There is an emotional cost to journaling, which was hardly discussed here but I vaguely remember being mentioned by @Salao. I'm referring to the swings of 'pride' when displaying good trophy trades and then the feeling of 'shame' of losing trades. In reality, majority of them are neither good nor bad trades. They are just trades which get signficance from the outcome. Yes, there are occasional idiotic trades but they are few and far between. Perhaps, majority of the successful traders have mastered this emotional nuisance but I'm not one of them.
I'm also in the process of making my trading 'lean' and cutting out all negative inputs. Unfortunately, I have concluded that journaling, at this stage of my trading career, has more downsides that upside.
I do like the accountability part though. Currently I have 1 currency trader buddy, based in UK with whom I have a weekend 1 hr whatsapp video call. We also share our trades 2-3 times a week but somewhat inconsistent. My goal for 2025 is to have a small group of traders, possibly 4 or 5, and have a more structured system. I know @Blue Eagle and @twosigma were interested but they have work and other constraints right now. My next visit to Canada & USA will be in March 2025. I will touch base with you both before that and we will try and meet up too.
I got busy with errands...
