Blackgrey45,
I commend you on this trading journal. I think there are definitely some learnings here....are you looking for feedback from the peanut gallery? If not, no problem. I don't want to intrude if this is a journey you want to take solo.

All the best!

COoneguy 

Blackgrey45, I commend you on this trading journal. I think there are definitely some learnings here....are you looking for feedback from the peanut gallery? If not, no problem. I don't want to intrude if this is a journey you want to take solo. All the best!

Thank you for the response. Yes, I would like feedback! I am always willing to learn.

Blackgrey45,
Nice job on the journal. Some things stand out that might bear some examination. First, let me say that the things I see in this journal are no doubt informed by my own experience and weaknesses. Specifically, counter-trend trading. And my comments should be taken with the understanding that we all trade differently. What follows is just my opinion. Also, your focus on controlling losses will be beneficial to you in the long run. That base...of recognizing the importance of controlling your losses....will pay big dividends once you dial in your method.

It is clear from your journal, and your description of your method, that you do well in a well-defined sideways market. You don't do so well in a strong trend. As a trader who is drawn to counter-trend trades, it is my constant battle to understand what the market is doing right now, and try to force myself to go with the trend. To not battle it. It's like stepping out in front of a fast moving bus....maybe the bus will stop and start backing up before it hits me, but probably not. With your strategy of entering counter-trend, and then hoping you can ride that trade until the end of the day, you are counting on a trend stopping and reversing for your big wins. In my opinion, it is rare to catch that top or bottom very often.

I think you mentioned at one point that your entry conditions are not very well defined. If that is true, I would suggest you work on that part of the equation. Try to find entry points on pull-backs within a trend, and then enter in the direction of the trend.

I keep detailed stats on every trade signal, whether I miss the trade or not. The stats include, entry signal, entry price, MAE (how much heat did I take after entry), MFE, what the PL would have been with different exit strategies (break of previous bar, break of swing high). This gives me an enormous amount of confidence in my strategy, and tells me what to expect as that market changes over time. From this, I know that counter trend trading is not my thing, and yet I still have to fight the urge to do it. It draws me in even when I know it doesn't work on a P&L basis.

I hope this is a bit helpful.

COoneguy 

Blackgrey45, Nice job on the journal. Some things stand out that might bear some examination. First, let me say that the things I see in this journal are no doubt informed by my own experience and weaknesses. Specifically, counter-trend trading. And my comments should be taken with the understanding that we all trade differently. What follows is just my opinion. Also, your focus on controlling losses will be beneficial to you in the long run. That base...of recognizing the importance of controlling your losses....will pay big dividends once you dial in your method. It is clear from your journal, and your description of your method, that you do well in a well-defined sideways market. You don't do so well in a strong trend. As a trader who is drawn to counter-trend trades, it is my constant battle to understand what the market is doing right now, and try to force myself to go with the trend. To not battle it. It's like stepping out in front of a fast moving bus....maybe the bus will stop and start backing up before it hits me, but probably not. With your strategy of entering counter-trend, and then hoping you can ride that trade until the end of the day, you are counting on a trend stopping and reversing for your big wins. In my opinion, it is rare to catch that top or bottom very often. I think you mentioned at one point that your entry conditions are not very well defined. If that is true, I would suggest you work on that part of the equation. Try to find entry points on pull-backs within a trend, and then enter in the direction of the trend. I keep detailed stats on every trade signal, whether I miss the trade or not. The stats include, entry signal, entry price, MAE (how much heat did I take after entry), MFE, what the PL would have been with different exit strategies (break of previous bar, break of swing high). This gives me an enormous amount of confidence in my strategy, and tells me what to expect as that market changes over time. From this, I know that counter trend trading is not my thing, and yet I still have to fight the urge to do it. It draws me in even when I know it doesn't work on a P&L basis. I hope this is a bit helpful.

Thank you for the thoughtful response. I am currently studying trending markets and am contemplating whether my counter-trend trading is helping me or hurting me. My guess is counter-trend trading is probably hurting me in the long run because I am on the wrong side of the trade roughly 70% of the time. I am definitely looking into it.

You are spot on, I do my best in sideways markets. I look for a range and attempt to buy the low and sell the high which allows me to get into profitable trades when the market does not trend.

I will also look into adding the data points you had mentioned to my spreadsheet.

I just can't express how interesting the futures market is to me. It is fascinating to watch the buys and sellers battle it out on the DOM all day long. I traded stocks and forex for about 10 years and moved onto futures last March. I am also so happy that I found this forum. I am trying to read as much as I can so I can turn my trading into a profitable venture.

Thanks again,
Blackgrey45

loantelligence 

You want to improve your trading plan but you are not keeping track of the data correctly.....you are using a spread sheet for the facts but using 100 as the win/loss calculation is muddling the results....over 0....a win ...under 0 a loss....try that....it makes more sense with the facts....then you know what is really happening.....and can make better decisions .......I am enjoying your numbers though....and would like to see your results....

Not to mention the psychological/emotional effects of such a W/L ratio. Was wondering how you were profitable with 3/181 winning trades.

Mik618 

Not to mention the psychological/emotional effects of such a W/L ratio. Was wondering how you were profitable with 3/181 winning trades.

Hey Mik618. Yeah my win/loss ratio is extreme. This is taking its toll on me mentally. Today I get my monthly statement, so I will see how I did with my P/L. Today I took the day off from my extreme strategy and traded using a market making strategy. This resulted in many more winners. I may completely abandon my old strategy and continue with this market making type of trading. It was much easier to handle mentally. Anyways, here are my trades for the day:

Yeah if I trade 3 x a day I'm overtrading. Of course I have to work around a day job, and have very limited capital. But my progress is so much more stable and less stressful than ever before. You really should be honest with yourself about your w/l. You have a great system that is obviously working for you.

You show me yours and I'll show you mine:

Starting yesterday I have been trading a new strategy. The new strategy is a market making/scalping style of trading. The win rate will be very high (>80%). I am still attempting to buy lows and sell highs for my entries. I realize that counter trend trading may not be very healthy for my account but for now I am sticking with my entry strategy. I am exiting using a limit order of 4 ticks profit. To the downside, losing trades will get exited when roughly 40 ticks have gone against me.

The market I will be focused on trading will be the MES. I may trade MCL a little. The MES is highly liquid and the tick size is very friendly for my small account. The goal is to trade the ES but this is a long way off and I will be sticking to the MES for now.

Reasons for the strategy change? The previous strategy had a 0.5% win rate. Living through roughly 200 losses for one winning trade was very difficult and unsustainable.

I will let you guys know how my new strategy performs.

Thank you for your support,

Blackgrey45