ESZ2 volume @9:43 am EST: 655K

ES pulled back from highs to below 3700 this morning then bounced. ESZ2 volume @12:38pm EST - 1.69 million

ESZ2 volume as of 2:21 pm EST: 2.02million

ESZ2 volume @4:08pm EST - 2.65million

kamaiu 

It appears it is statistically stacked against you for 1-3 tick stop loss in the ES, but letting a winner run all day. That would mean you would have to perfectly pick the low or high of that trading session. Your RR would need to be greater than the ATR of a trading session. Your risk of ruin is likely 100%. Death by a thousand cuts. 1-3 ticks is more market makers / high-frequency land in today’s ES market. Scalping less than 4 ticks would require a stop greater than the reward and a high win rate to make up for that extra initial risk. The market can go 3 ticks in milliseconds and pop right back. This is easy work for a market maker. You can also add more contracts on the MES. 10 = 1 on the ES. You are trying to swing trade and need to size your position according to a reasonable stop like a few ticks above/below a swing high/low. That could be 10, 20, 40 ticks away. If it’s too far for your taste, then it’s just not a good trade to take.

Thank you for the thoughts. I agree with you my strategy will likely result in failure. I use a stop of 1 to 3 ticks because that is the most I want to risk on any given day(about 50 bucks). The natural solution would be to trade the MES and use wider stops but I stubbornly refuse to trade the micro contract. Why do I refuse to trade the MES? The answer probably has something to do with my ego...I want to trade the ES and be a part of the biggest futures contract in the world.

Higher interest rates are driving stock prices down. Higher interest rates are driving mortgage rates higher helping to cool the housing market. Higher interest rates are doing what the Fed intended as the price for raw materials go down. Just take a look at crude, above $110 a barrel around the Ukraine invasion to now just north of $80. As interest rates go up stocks like Meta are looking cheaper with a 14 times forward PE.

ESZ2 market @1:40pm EST:
High- 3774.25
Low- 3676.75
Volume- 1.65million

ESZ2 numbers @3:48

High 3774.25
Low 3676.75
Volume 2.10million

I traded one ES contract today,
Direction was Long
Entry @3697.75
Exit @3698.25
Profit +$25

I have to stay disciplined. I went from 20 trades and losing $200 a day in the MES to 1 trade and losing $50 a day in the ES. So moving to the ES was a huge improvement in my results. I just can't get careless and stop following my plan. I need to keep making improvements one day at a time. I plan on continuing using a 1 to 4 tick stop in the ES, just one trade a day and that will keep me safe. I will continue saving up my chicken so I can increase the number of contracts I trade. I am trading 1 ES contract right now and my 1 year goal is to trade 10 contracts all while keeping my risk down to a minimum. Patience is also key for me, if I don't feel comfortable trading I wont.

ESZ2 stats:

High @3813.25
Low @3736.50
Volume 1.53 million