20241205 pre mrket nq


News
-

Condition 1
otf up

Condition 0
open in upper third

Thoughts
markets are very bullish but have already moved
do not sit too much on the flagpole
But more important: Do not fight this run, do not anticipate liquidations

Change
acceptance below old ath

20241209 pre market



News
-

Condition 1
ES could come into balance a bit but does not have to

Condition 0
open in range
= trade later

Thoughts
trying to pick tops is a fools game
Let the market show its hand

20241212 premarket



News
13:00 bond auction

Condition 1
4 day balance

Condition 0
open in range
> trade later

Thoughts
both markets are in a 4 day balance area
balance rules apply

20241212 pre market




News
we had job data at 08:30
13.00 bond auction

Condition 1
the daily did a gap and go up yesterday

Condition 0
overnight is exploring lower
and tested under y low with the job data

Thoughts
The low of the conso could be in
this thesis could change if we see acceptance below y low

20241213 pre market



News
avgo up 20% after earnings
-

Condition 1
NQ had an inside day and today gaps up on news
ES clearly broke its upmove and is in Balance

Condition 0
NQ explored a new ath in eth
ES open in middle of 7 day balance

Thoughts
just scalp

20241216 pre market



News
09:45 numbers
wednesday fed

Condition 1
ES is in Balance
NQ is matured imbalanced up

Condition 0
friday ES was not able to get the swing low
It was just a liquidation
In eth we see some covering which lets us open above the belly

NQ opens with a little gap on new ath

Thoughts
In tendency we see less action on the first days of a fed week
There is no need to antizipate a change of condition 1
Trade in the frame work of what is

20241217 pre market



News
10:00 numbers
13:00 bond auction
tomorrow fed

Condition 1
NQ imbalanced up (matured)
ES in balance

Condition 0
ES with small gap down
NQ in range

Thoughts
ES is is balance untip it isnīt
Do not anticipate change

20241219 pre market



d1



Rough liquidation break with the fed yesterday
I have no idea whats next
I take my size down and try to get a scalp here and there

Rcap 

20241205 pre mrket nq News - Condition 1 otf up Condition 0 open in upper third Thoughts markets are very bullish but have already moved do not sit too much on the flagpole But more important: Do not fight this run, do not anticipate liquidations Change acceptance below old ath

has anyone noticed: very wide spreads on NQ... sometimes > 5 ticks and the very fast jumping bid/ask levels

thanks toucan

20241223 pre market


News
10:00 numbers

Condition 1
rough lliquidation
followed by siome balancing and covering

Condition 0
we open in the lower part of the covering belly

Thoughts
I am not interested in shorts
if there would be more covering i would be interested