20250226 recap



we covered in the first half of the day to the area double week low/anchored vwap from start of move
In g we rolled over in trend direction without reaching the swing low

I had some problems in the belly
I was too close on the tick
Better get a bit more distance to tick behaviour in that situation (covering in downtrend)

20250227 pre market



News
10:00 numbers
11;45 feds bowman
15:15 feds harker

Condition 1
downmove followed by 2 days of balance

Condition 0
we open un the middle between te two distributions

Thoughts
expect chop in the middle of the two day balance
the edges are interesting

20250227 recap



started with a very fast break
then we saw a huge volume peak followed by > 70% retracement
for me that looked like big buyers
in the end we were only shortterm oversold
sellers remainded in contol and pushed lower

20250228 pre market




News
09:45 pmi

Condition 1
yesterday we broke out of the small and the larger balance area
if condition remains we are in a bigger selloff


Condition 0
whole eth trades in lower half of spike which is bearish

Thoughts
failing covering rallies should be sellable

20250303 pre market



News
09:45 and 10:00 numbers

Condition 1
we looked below big balance and failed (for now)

Condition 0
week ended with a covering spike up
eth trades in upper part of spike and above

Thoughts
the whole thing seems to be more of a sector rotation than systemic sell off
weakness in tech and strength in health and fin
tough to trade in es
go back to more scalping and less going for moves

20250305 pre market



News
09:45 pmi
10:00 ism
tariff talk

Condition 1
we are in a downmove
y value below visious swing low
market seems to be indecisive
vix at 24

Condition 0
whole eth is in range

Thoughts
No controlled context playing out
this is not a time to take risks and antipate moves

wait for a established situation
scalp the first pullback

20250306 pre market



News
-

Condition 1
we are in a downmove
yesterday we saw some covering (which was not able to break the previous high
yesterday inside day

Condition 0
we open >1% lower but still in range

Thoughts
stressful environment
i take size down

20250307 pre market



News
we had nfp
10:15 feds bowman
10:45 feds william,s
11:00 fed report
12:30 feds powell !!!

Condition 1
we move lower for 3 weeks
not very fast but steady

COndition 0
we opwn near yesterdays poor low
for now onl is in sam area which makes it weak

Thoughts
we have ugly covering moves that can go long ways
also we have tariff talk which can come any moment and shake things up
tough time

20250312 pre market



News
09:45 boc decision and statement
13:00 bond auction
tariff talk

Condition 1
otf down

Condition 0
with cpi we took out rth h

Thoughts
For a few days i trade smaller things than before
Its interesting that there are nice tradeable pullbacks on the tick
This way i have less need to anticipate the bigger intraday moves

20250313 pre market



News
13:00 bond auction

Condition 1
2 day balance in down move

Condition 0
open in the middle
> expect chop
> trade later

Thoughts

Great quote from soccer coach Vincent Kompany:
We donīt believe the hype
We donīt believe the drama
We believe in the process