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Condition 1
The daily lost a bit of speed but is still otf up
For now it has not filled the gap above and did not really enter the balance area
Yesterday we had some inventory correction/liquidation but sellers were not able to get a daily low
Condition 0
Todays eth is completely in range
we open near the mid
> expect chop > trade later
Thoughts
We have important earnigns on wed and thu
I have no idea what the next move is and i do not have to
There is no change until we see a breach of otf
Good day to add to the answer to the asked question:
We started with what looked like scenario 3)
At 10:00 with the pce (but not because of it) we had a change and now it looks more like scenario 1) or 2)
In other words:
Its a live accesssment of what happens
The prior analysis only helps to build a framework to judge what happens live
It is never a "Do x at this level and do y at this level"
News
we had nfp
we had amzn and aapl earnings
1000 numbers
Condition 1
perfect "spring" (look below balance and fail) on wednesday
followed by gap and hold yesterday
and a small gap today
the weekly and daily are up
we are already a bit on the flagpole
Thoughts
Buyers seem to run a bit out of steam
A test of that 4 day balance h (=gap close) would be no real change for me
Hard to say where this change would be
In other words: No bias at all from my side
Condition 0 eth completely in range
we open im the middle
> expect chop
Thoughts
Yesterday short term money was in play. Getting in emotionally and getting out emotionally if it does not follow through
Real value for traders occurs if we test the low of the balance area