20230901 post market

• The market did what it is supposed to do. Its coming into balance on the daily by taking out a daily low
• We were not able to take out the onh and sold off rapidly right from the start. I shorted it early.
• Then we had a rough pullback
• In the end we have a liquidation-b-profile which suits in the market environment
• I could have imagined even more liquidation before this long weekend but this did not happen. For this i held a runner with target at wednesday low (= weekly vwap= virgin poc) which i exited late in the session

trades 9 1

Thoughts on execution in the NQ

• The NQ is thin so the tick is very volatile.
• It´s jumping around trying to get you on the wrong path
• Especially when you get emotional the danger is that it leads you to overtrading. Exiting too early or even reversing position
• At least for me this is the case as i am by nature a very proactive trader, often a too active trader

In the ES it´s different. But for the NQ i decided to work with the following

Execution rules

• Transfer the responsibility to your stop
• Do not take action because of a few fast ticks
• Don´t close manually. Don´t reverse

In our trading business there a many screws which we can optimize. I think especially in a fast market like the NQ we should analyze all screws that are in our control and turn them into a position that lets our emotional level stay as calm as possible. Scaling out and not scaling in again is a similar screw for me.

Holiday time
Tomorrow i fly to Mallorca
I will continue here starting September 18

weekly 9 18



20230918 pre market

• We have an inside week followed by another inside week (Balance)
• Both lows are close to each other which makes them even more important
• At this balance area low we could see a) look below and go b) look below and fail or c) door no 3 = balance

The on session has explored lower but was not able to follow through

20230918 post market



trades 09 18

• We opened near y rth low and saw no follow through so i offensively bought for some kinf of covering
• Worked good and i scaled out one at onh and exited the other as it came back too far
• Then it seemed that the long scenario stays intact and it tried long again. Long side was intersting as this could have been a look below the two inside weeks and fail
• Longs got no traction and it seemed to roll over to the short side. As this also got no traction i closed the short early
• Given the bigger timeframe there was potential for both sides. But nothing bigger happened on either side. So i labeled the day as "low conviction" and stopped trading early
• One could say: Why not trade the edges when there is low conviction? From my experience you will have no joy with this as the pressure at the inflection points is just not high enough and the algos will play their game with you
• It is of maximum importance to be in a mental state of abundance and not in a state of needyness, especially on low conviction days

20230919 pre market

• friday, monday and todays overnight form nice liquidation b
• the low is weak so chances are good that it will break
• as yesterday was not much conviction and tomorrow is the fed, chances are good that we again see a day without much conviction
• as always: anything can happen

Rcap 

20230919 pre market friday, monday and todays overnight form nice liquidation b the low is weak so chances are good that it will break as yesterday was not much conviction and tomorrow is the fed, chances are good that we again see a day without much conviction as always: anything can happen

Indeed with market hovering around VWAP anything could happen.
Was there any way to guesstimate what would transpire in the RTH session.


190923MNQ

kazbek966 

Indeed with market hovering around VWAP anything could happen. Was there any way to guesstimate what would transpire in the RTH session. 190923MNQ

From my point of view there is never a way to estimate whats gonna happen.

I just build a framework consisting of

1. Where was BALANCE in the past?
2. What is the INVENTORY of speculators?
3. What is the status of the AUCTION?

Regarding 3) there was no real excess at the bottom which is an indication that the auction is not finished yet.

All this analysis only gives a framework to which we can relate what happens LIVE.

20230919 post market



trades 08 19

• We opened near y low. I tried to get in some covering action. did not work.
• Changed to short side for the missing excess at these important levels. Did not really like the way it fell so i traded it with caution
• Later it showed some acceptance at lower prices so i had more confidence and shorted again for a "continuation scalp" from vwap SD-1 to the low of that trendday up that happended 3 weeks ago
• In general i would be interested in longs after the acceptance back in the bigger balance area but i do not like this time of day and i did not expect much on the day before the fed

Rcap 

20230919 post market trades 08 19 We opened near y low. I tried to get in some covering action. did not work. Changed to short side for the missing excess at these important levels. Did not really like the way it fell so i traded it with caution Later it showed some acceptance at lower prices so i had more confidence and shorted again for a "continuation scalp" from vwap SD-1 to the low of that trendday up that happended 3 weeks ago In general i would be interested in longs after the acceptance back in the bigger balance area but i do not like this time of day and i did not expect much on the day before the fed

Out of sheer curiosity are you using Volume and CumDelta in your analysis , cause there was what seemed like exhaustive volume accompanied by sizeable CumDelta in the respective bar that did not get any traction and from then on it was a trip back to VWAP.