trade off

In case current gap up will remain till open probably a bit of short covering might be expected with a bit of a push on an upside. Whether it will reach weekly VWAP is completely different matter.

I would also point that usually consolidation is accompanied by relatively small volumes, while yesterday Volume after big push down remained on an elevated levels which could be another indication of reversal. Yesterday sell-off near close bore all hall-marks of spike , which was confirmed by aftermarket reversal. There was also nice double bottom pattern appeared in afterhours so I would say the question is when to take a long position. Probably when the price will be freed from nice downward channel.

That being said 100% of the time my analysis is wrong, so most profitable strategy would be listen to me and take reverse :-). But we will see today as I put all my thoughts down.

From my painful experience i can say that all this analysis (now matter how good it is) is not worth much compared to the "see what is live".

Thats why on above slide the "see what is live" is fat and all the thinking and analyses comes with far less importance

Rcap 

20230921 post market trades 9 21 In times of higher volatility there are often good chances in the eth session Especially around 9:30 and 10:00 german time we often see inflection points We opened with a large gap We did not see see much covering although it looked strong 1 or 2 times I believe: When the break is young covering is often less or gets absorbed by sellers There is a trade off between "see what is" (which looked strong 1 or 2 times) and "trade what suits to the environment". I think this is a difficult point which will improve with more and more experience doing the same thing We had a gap and hold and balance most of the day with a late break in KLM I imagined that the break comes a bit earlier and produces a double distribution day After lunchtime i had some problems and reversed positions a few times. That was bad trading Life (and the market) is a teacher who gives you lessons and tasks until you solve them

If it is not too painfull to analyze would you mind to zoom in on two premarket trades. Price was in nice downward channel continuing to roll down so what was the rationale for closing the shop ? Take a profit and bail out ?

Rcap 

From my painful experience i can say that all this analysis (now matter how good it is) is not worth much compared to the "see what is live". Thats why on above slide the "see what is live" is fat and all the thinking and analyses comes with far less importance

Quoting from one experienced trader : " You did not make a mistake, you just took position too early ". But it is worthwhile to put thoughts together and form a basis for the trading decision(s) in writing.

On a general note I mentioned a couple of other trading journals, may be it is worthwhile to have one big journal dedicated to futures where traders put their thoughts / trades in one place. This way it will be collective learning process where people discuss their ideas and rationale and thus enhance each other skills. I certainly find a lot of benefit going through your journal as TPO is not something I could ever consider, but as a general framework for the day / week it certainly has lots of value.

20230922 pre market


The objective part

• The daily broke out of balance and is now imbalanced down
• Yesterday we had a large gap and added on to this. Short term inventory is short. Structure above is poor
• We had a late day selling spike
• The eth tested lower, rejected lower prices and is since that covering in slow motion
• overnight inventory is long

Thoughts

• The sentiment is bearish. We have a monthly low that in untested below us. There can of course be more selling.
• Due to the short inventory there can occur covering
• Door no 3 is always balance
• Anything can happen. I try to be open for everything.

I call it a day ...

• My improvement point to work on next week is to not change scenario so fast
• We are in the nq which is very slippy. Do not let the algos fool you so easy
• Despite of this everything ok today

trades 09 22

20230925 pre market


Objective

• On the daily we had a selling spike followed by a gap that hold and fell further
• We open the week with another gap down below the visious swing low
• overnight inventory is mixed and we open near the bottom of the on range

Thoughts

• Nothing new here
• We are a bit oversold in the shorter term inventory. There can occur covering everytime
• We fall below important lows. There can occur more selling
• Try to recognize early (but not too early) what they want to do
• Look for signposts: y rth l, onl

My improvement point this week

• Do not switch established scenarios so fast
• Take the good trades and give them room

Classical bearish gap and retest.
Pending funding of US government any long plays are more than risky.
We have been there before in spring.
2509OPEN

20230925 post market



trades 9 25

• Covering mode all day that developed not much pressure/speed to the upside
• That made it hard to get the second move up. Market made one hook too much
• Late in the morning it looked like it wants to rollover to the shortside. But that was just one more hook to get out some longs only to then make the second leg up

@kazbek966
I ignore 99% of news/media and instead focus on inventory and what actually happens