Larger view. Market repeatedly knocking at 14800 level.
If it will slice through this support zone we will find ourselves at 14300.
Cumulative Delta values are strictly negative , Vaunted Squeeze Momentum Indicator is beating previous lows . Chances are there will be another strong attempt to slice through 14800-14700 and push even lower.
DAILY

weekly

Rcap 

weekly

Weekly even more conclusive. Market in clear defined very strong downward channel unless it breaks out of it, which will be very strong bullish signal,
I would play only shorts.

The rectangles show BALANCE on the weekly timeframe.

Have a look at the balance rules, for example here: https://www.shadowtrader.net/glossary/balance-rules/

Rcap 

The rectangles show BALANCE on the weekly timeframe. Have a look at the balance rules, for example here: https://www.shadowtrader.net/glossary/balance-rules/

The key words in those resource was " possible outcome" with the emphasis on possible. I would condense it to two outcomes: UP or DOWN. But hey if it works for you so much the better. I usually see channels and use them as part of my decision process. Though as was rightly mentioned market will tell us where it goes and being small fish it will be smart to follow and not theorize too much. Having said that if current gap will remain till open then we are in bearish gap-n-go territory with a bit of yesterday LONGs trapped and we'd better tighten our belts for a good ride down.

20230926 pre market



Objective

• We had a gap down followed by 3 days of balance at lower prices
• We had some covering yesterday and also on friday. Covering weakens a market
• As we have not seen a strong reversal, the picture is still bearish
• For now we have no follow through at the old swing low
• The eth looked above y rth h and sold off so that we open in the lower part of yesterdays range
• oni is short and we open low

Thoughts

• In a beaerish environment it makes sense to short when covering rallys fail (innovate)
• Alternatively wait for a clear picture of whats going on and scalp inside that

If I was Mr. MarketMaker I would take out yesterday Shorts that became quite confident and retest 14800 area before swinging down with the vengeance and take out hopeful Longs in the process.

20230926 post market




trades 9 26

• We opened with a non true gap down
• We saw a little move upward that failed and gave the chance to short it
• The market does the sequences of MOVING and BALANCING. As we had three days of BALANCE it suits to environment to move lower
• As we broke out of 3-day-balance and out of multiple week balance i visualized a strong break
• In C-period we had a strong reversal that did not fit in im visualization. I anticipated a V-turn and reversed position
• That showed to be wrong and i switched back to short
• Missed my second target by a few points

Was i too hasty in reversing position?

• First of all, afterwards it is always easy. I saw it like i saw it in this moment and i do not blame myself
• Given the fact that the NQ is very slippy and volatile on the tick i plan for the future to be less influenced by the tick and make more use of MILESTONES
• It is a 24h market and we were already down a good amount
• It is a two way auction, contra auctions are normal
• In a moving market a good milestone would have been the 24 hour vwap
• This was never reached in the rth session

Rcap 

20230926 post market trades 9 26

Thats picture perfect Wyckoff market consolidation. I think Mr. Wyckoff theories are a bit more sound and tested by time in comparison to this shadow dude.

20230927 pre market




Objective

• We are moving down for 2 weeks with more or less one time framing
• A first sign of change would be a sustainable break of a daily high. Until this occurs we are clearly bearish
• Yesterday we develpoed value below the multi week balance
• The eth grinded higher slowly
• We open with a non true gap up on long oni with an open near the top of the on range

Thoughts

• I have no idea for an early trade
• Let things develop a bit