20250102 pre market



News
09:45 and 10:00 numbers

Condition 1
daily was diwn the last days with the last day nearly insinde day

Condition 0
eth tested below and above the last rth
but we open in range

20250103 pre market



News
10:00 ism

Condition 1
daily is down and made a new swing low yesterday (without getting the eth low)

Condition 0
we open a good way higher near y mid

Thoughts
There is potential for covering if we do not continue this downmove (which we do not at the moment)
Old swing low can be line in the sand

20250106 pre market



News
09.45 and 10:00 numbers

Condition 1
trying to break out of 4 day balance
> balance rules apply

Condition 0
we open with big gap up
oni is long
> some kind of pullback/shake out needed

Change
the bullish picture changes if we find acceptance inside the balance area

20250107 pre market



News
10:00 ism & jobs
13:00 10y auction

Condition 1
we broke out and held yesterday
the candle is red but value is clean higher

Condition 0
we open in middle of range
> no reason for early trade

Thoughts
a liitle messy
more bullish than bearish
no reason to think short here

I decided to go back from trading es and nq to trade only one market which will be the es.

The goal is to develop more feeling for the market and for the problems of the other participants.




One market

20250110 pre market



News
we just had nfp
10:00 numbers

Condition 1
The white box is a huge box of indecisiveness and chop
the last 2 days are a liquidation b
i will watch the market relative to this belly

Condition 0
price running lower with the numbers but coming back a bit and open near wed low


Thoughts
Market could be a bit short in the hole if it gets no continuation
Seeing acceptance in wed range could trigger some covering

20250113 pre market



News
-
tuesday cpi
bank earnings

Condition 1
the breakout occured on friday but in a very two-sided-way (which made it very hard to trade)

Condition 0
gap down on top of fridays breakout

Thoughts
according to people market tops are often less clean than market bottoms
this means that we should not overrate the two sided behaviour
value was clean lower
the breakout is intact by fact
i would see change not before acceptance above the breakout point (turquoise box)

a good short trade should have
-a prior covering move and
-a clear fail of that covering move

pre market 20250114



News
we had ppi this morning
1500 feds williams
bank earnings tomorrow pre market

Condition 1
we were otf down
yesterday we saw covering

Condition 0
gap up
nearly all eth is ubove y high

Thoughts
if there are any sellers they seem to have no urgency
if this does not change i am no more interested in thinking short
if we stay above y high there could be more covering
maybe one time the buyers come back if they think that the pullback on the daily is over
take it tick by tick

Market Analysis




Indecisive Market
the market has no clear path
it seems to go in one direction only to retrace massively
i think it is driven by short term traders/algos at the moment which f**** each other
position, covering, position, liquidation


Conclusion
anticipation of moves makes no sense in this environment
wait for an established situation and only scalp the first pullback

20250115 pre market



News
ppi and bank earnings pre market

Condition 1
we are in a choppy down move on the daily

Condition 0
large gap up on news

Thoughts
i try to establish a defensive style without much antizipation