dollar might weaken from stronger levels w/ inflation relief

indexes still strong

//

but.. there is a possible major reversal ongoing since last quarter

going to say this, that last quarter was a kill zone overextension

this quarter has met the target areas for actually selling and a break of 490 spy will lead to revisiting the 445 kill line

AND that is the optimistic view. this will drag on lower past that through the year as it wishes

//

vix already established that anything under 17 is a buy zone and we are watching the final innings here

bonds were in the same boat last quarter and have also maxed out yields, waiting for the cut

113 was the high in the dollar and we are trying to hold strength

//

seems like industrials will bear the burden of not overextending like other us indexes

especially the semi sector which ran away from core production

kill line for btc around 30k, etc. tlt 97 and under buy zone

and then keep in mind this is happening in the backdrop of china which is attempting recovery

fxi already established the 23 zone as value and aud/usd @ 0.635 as well

and so the year of the dragon coincides with the swapping of roles

hilarious that bloomberg radio is not really considering the djia index as a useful metric

"a weather report for a ghost town", "unh representing too high a percentage"

but honestly is a large representative slice of the companies out there

//

also seems that nvda needs hit a high bar with a beat and raise

otherwise, we go sub 666 to sub 500 to 420 long and drawn out all year

they have to make up the china market due to trade restrictions

vix should be lower based on the blip up today

some parts of large cap tech did overextend last year

looking with some precaution and selectively

//

the problematic overextension does not affect non-us as much

and keep in mind that china has already bit the bullet

foreign interest in bonds, and djia

waiting on bonds really and the fxi holdings

baba and bidu need to retest lows exception is jd which sank hard

interesting sq and cvna today

//

most indexes have components that overextended so indexes are also a mixed bag

even the dow a this point and ex-us like rergx containing nvo

semi shock sooner or later pretty redic

covid19 2020 lows were never revisited on some indexes

ex us this is an exception and may indicate bubble type issues

fortunately bonds took the other route

embedded in several funds are high flying tech issuance which needs caution

also hidden in the background is the cut event where a burst higher will be enough

so that vix secures levels to move back to previous year's levels

//

semis as part of this tech boom have converged with crypto

this alternative currency along with low yield enviro really enhanced tech growth

removal of low yield has happened and as yield returns, the adjustment in crypto will deflate

fxi down, vix up trying to prevent the pushes to satisfy the final score

not so sure on energy now esp. natgas but metals seem nice

crypto is also an uncertainty that has again tainted semis

things are not quite frothy since we have ranges

though valuations are up there so a slow cruise is acceptable

yields have been dropping and fxi climbing so we will see and crypto is nuts