the action would stay tighter into FOMC to provide a stab at forex upside

which needs to be repaired with the asian yen crosses suffering most

forex aside indexes vol yields are still ranged, even crypto not gold

//

traditional inflationary instruments partly deflated into FOMC

got nvda in a spiral from the beginning of the year, flagging

the breach of ~122 would be deleterious into the recent recovery

have dollar weakness with crypto and yields in sympathy not precious

nvda needs to clinch this week to avoid disaster

searching for some kind of lift point to reverse

someone has to step in before it is too late

//

the tipping point for nvda hangs in the balance

the master of experts or efficiency addition to deepseek started in may 2024

having methods to shore up power usage and chip supply issues in ai is significant

since then nvda has been trying to hold through the dt but requires a sharp dip to regain

//

ai bellwether nvda wants to tread water but also needs to generate more lows for support

the interest in nvda seems to have waned after october

inflationary indicators via carries telegraphed CPI somewhat

commodities including energy dampened sentiment post event

//

rout in tech and lowered cut forecast dropped indexes somewhat

this opex and quarter so far with earnings has been kinda meh

carries like audjpy and rates are still waiting for more info

tech is still hovering but has witness some weakness

//

though nvda did bounce we will look to earnings

best case scenario would be for audjpy to flush lower and cause support

some air pockets otherwise and bonds are also at highs overshooting

we see that nvda has been in dt pressuring the downside for indexes

//

maybe carries can save some of the magic indexes worked hard on

still hedged but gradually reducing in the lower extremity

watching vol and aud/jpy as both suggest continuation

energy also in dt though indexes would be dippish still

//

would be beneficial to hedge in range but also wait out nfp

back after the event and then some to digest and equilibrate

looks like the negative news pricing in has generated piercing vol

which actually turns bad news into slumping but also dipping territory

//

we take caution and slowly lighten hedges watching carries and vol for the dip

after large hedge volumes, things have ranged establishing nodes

short term +calls or future buys that the mm matches long w/ -calls

delta neutral +puts = mm short w/ -put similarly.. though scale is large

//

hedging has caused ranging, seem to be of duration while capping prices

(we still use previous support as resistance to play along and avoid whipsaw)