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COT Swing Trading / Follow the Non Commercials?


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  #1 (permalink)
ThKu
München, Deutschland
 
Posts: 3 since Jan 2025
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Hello,

I've been looking for a suitable strategy with the COT data for about 3 years. But I can't find anything that really works well.

I've looked at the COT data, forwart curves and seasonality. But I can't find anyone who is profitable with it.

I'm wondering if it's not easiest to follow the non-commercials.

I have also read many books but it seems that old strategies no longer work.

Is there anyone who is successful with swing trading?

sorry for my English I had to translate everything

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  #2 (permalink)
 sevensa 
Singapore, Singapore
 
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ThKu View Post
Hello,

I've been looking for a suitable strategy with the COT data for about 3 years. But I can't find anything that really works well.

I've looked at the COT data, forwart curves and seasonality. But I can't find anyone who is profitable with it.

I'm wondering if it's not easiest to follow the non-commercials.

I have also read many books but it seems that old strategies no longer work.

Is there anyone who is successful with swing trading?

sorry for my English I had to translate everything

If after three years you haven't found something that works using COT, perhaps it is time to try something different?

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  #3 (permalink)
 
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 Falco11 
Vienna,Europe
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: NT
Trading: ES,6E
Frequency: Many times daily
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Posts: 71 since Dec 2010
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ThKu View Post
Hello,

I've been looking for a suitable strategy with the COT data for about 3 years. But I can't find anything that really works well.

I've looked at the COT data, forwart curves and seasonality. But I can't find anyone who is profitable with it.

I'm wondering if it's not easiest to follow the non-commercials.

I have also read many books but it seems that old strategies no longer work.

Is there anyone who is successful with swing trading?

sorry for my English I had to translate everything

you should visit this side https://cotbase.com/features/aftersignal/

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  #4 (permalink)
 
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 aligator 
Las Vegas, NV
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Experience: Advanced
Platform: Abacus, Slide Rule, HP-65
Trading: Futures, Stocks, Options
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ThKu View Post
Hello,

I've been looking for a suitable strategy with the COT data for about 3 years. But I can't find anything that really works well.

I've looked at the COT data, forwart curves and seasonality. But I can't find anyone who is profitable with it.

I'm wondering if it's not easiest to follow the non-commercials.

I have also read many books but it seems that old strategies no longer work.

Is there anyone who is successful with swing trading?

sorry for my English I had to translate everything

Perhaps the biggest authority on COT trading is Larry Williams who was the first to start the COT trading subject in 1970's and still on top of it. I have followed him since 1978 and have read his major books. He is one of the most informed and well respected futures trading gurus alive with his material all over the media. Here is where to start:

https://www.ireallytrade.com/cotreport/

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  #5 (permalink)
ThKu
München, Deutschland
 
Posts: 3 since Jan 2025
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Hi aligator,

I have read most of the books that are available in German. Have you been successful with the COP data?

Times are changing... see the "Turtle Traders" there are very quick ways to get information. The prices react very quickly and are becoming more and more effective. What is your strategy?

Thanks

Regards
Thomas

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  #6 (permalink)
 
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 aligator 
Las Vegas, NV
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ThKu View Post
Hi aligator,

I have read most of the books that are available in German. Have you been successful with the COP data?

Times are changing... see the "Turtle Traders" there are very quick ways to get information. The prices react very quickly and are becoming more and more effective. What is your strategy?

Thanks

Regards
Thomas

Hi Thomas,

True, technology has changed, It all depends on your trading objectives, whether to use COT trading or not. Traditionally, the producers (sellers) and processing and packaging companies (buyers) of commodities, to guarantee future pricing and availability of their product, may be still using COT data for futures trading. Because COT trading is more seasonality dependent, it is probably not really suitable for day trading or even swing trading, but definitely OK for seasonality and investment trading.

Back in 1980's I used to trade Live Cattle and Soybean futures and futures options with commissions of $175 and higher per trade through brokers without any of today's online information. I had to maintain positions hoping for seasonality effects and major changes in supply and demand before cashing in and profit or jumping out. I never went back after the advent of internet, availability of live data, and the Forex.

In today’s markets commissions and fees have dropped to virtually nothing and you are competing with HFT machines that trade many contracts in a small fraction of a second. There are hell of a lot more better opportunities today with extreme liquidity and almost non-existent Bid/Ask differences. Trading SP500 futures products many times during the day with virtually minimal cost does not need COT system. COT systems may have worked in the past, but I would let Joe the farmer, the bakers, and the butchers carry the COT trading torch.

After over 46 trading, I am taking it easy and trade high probability opportunities in equities, futures and options. See my active thread Here:



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  #7 (permalink)
 
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 Falco11 
Vienna,Europe
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Broker: NT
Trading: ES,6E
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Minutes
Posts: 71 since Dec 2010
Thanks Given: 229
Thanks Received: 68


ThKu View Post
Hi aligator,

I have read most of the books that are available in German. Have you been successful with the COP data?

Times are changing... see the "Turtle Traders" there are very quick ways to get information. The prices react very quickly and are becoming more and more effective. What is your strategy?

Thanks

Regards
Thomas


Screenshot 2025-02-04 141653


i got this chart from a friend, ES 1500 tick, COT signals

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Last Updated on February 4, 2025


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