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I have been working with historical cycles for a while now and will post the next few days of intraday ES charts that have the days cycle (highs, lows, times) to check out. Take a look and see if you think it is worthwhile and can possibly incorporate it into your trading. By the way, this project began as a possible side-business and am evaluating it now to see if it is going in the right direction and also to get some feed back from those who are interested.
Here is the chart with the Wednesday, 8-5-09 intraday projections. Please let me know what you think. I will followup with another chart tomorrow.
All it consists of are historical data, formulas and a lot of tweaking. As you can see software is mostly based on Excel at this time but am testing another piece to the puzzle that may make things a lot smoother, faster and easier for me.
They are the date and time...the time has a bug in it that drops the 0 in the minutes so you may get something like this for 9 06 ...9 6. Right now I am concentrating on the larger task of testing and tweaking.
Here is a look at todays actual compared to the projections for todays intraday utilizng a 3 min chart. A high-level view of the projections showed that todays market was going to be almost all sideways action which it did. The differentials on the time of date points that were noted in the projections also faired well considering the small time chart of 3 mins. I have included a spread on the differentials which had an overall average diff. of 18 mins with a a few that were within 6-5 mins of the projection points.
I will try a larger time-frame tonight of 5 mins also. I know these can look a lot better in long term charts; daily, weekly, etc. but am interested in intraday action mostly.
In going through the 5 min chart cycle studies I ran across this great example of the cycles nailing the price time. This happened early morning yesterday at 3:00 am.
I decided to eliminate a lot of the noise created by utilizing the 3 min chart and will use the 5 min chart. I will display the charts with both cycle plots for all of you technical minded (which I would guess are all of you out there) and the one plot like the 3 min chart yesterday. Let's see how this works out.
Regards, NMTrader
