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Tripken its nice to find someone who can make that strategy work. I can see from your charts it would be perfect for trend trading.
I see that you use tradestation for charting and broker. Nice I also use tradestation for charting, broker and automation.
I agree with your comment: each persons system is their own system. They developed it and understand how to use it. What I have done over the years is discuss systems with others to get better insights into trading and systems. Sometimes I even get an idea from discussions that I can use in my own system.
Just found this thread, ......interesting question :-) But the question is more about, what it is, that even after many years, the question if there must be a time frame where within it is more likely to get profitable? No, it is not.
Ok, may be my experience would give somebody a hint, what it is really about. Who I am. Peter, 55yrs. sorry not 5-10 yrs, but trading since more then 20yrs. canīt exactly remember when I started. I am somebody with huge experience but never got it to become professional. Came quite close with my developed system for a 10m hedgefund approach in 2016, because I lived in Germany and there you get no chance for an allowance until you have not worked in a Investmentbank. I applied for a licence in UK and this was a solution. This was 2016 .....and the Brexit brought everything into the trash can. I do remember on an Euro trade then, I made a huge amount this night, because my bet was a Brexit, and the whole market opinion stands more on the other side. But any plans were crap then, uncertainty for many years.
I went through the hell of trading many years before, more exactly from heaven to hell, and always and again, including many huge successes, made 740% in 6 months, made 2063% in 12 months. And in the same way, losses and catastrophies, yes I have wiped out many accounts.
So, what it is about? ......after all these years!
It is NOT, and NOT at all about technic, about knowledge, about money management, about the ultimate system, about teaching, about training, about everything, everybody is talking. Even in automated trading systems, the point of weakness is always "you". Why there are so many stories out there from people who didnīt care about any of the stuff and made a fortune despite?
Crucial is just, you may have heard about it, "mastering greed and fear", all of you have heard about it, but the curiosity is, that most people donīt know what it das mean, really mean. Everything in live what has influence to your emotions, will affect it. And there was a lot, from love to divorce, from children and family, from wealth to poverty and back.
To become profitable, for a time frame, for some or many years, for just some days......it is ONLY ....YOU!
Do I know my personal weaknesses? Yes I do, it is not at all important for you, because my are and will never be comparable to yours, but i will tell you.
I am the perfect trader, as long as the amounts are not too high, I do know my personal grade of taking risk and staying cool. And i am impatient, i was never interested in some steady and small income, even I know it is wrong, of course. It is getting better when I got older. If the amounts are getting bigger, I align or assign the "next step" to a possible complete change of my life, and that always, was the beginning, I begun to fail. In one week everything is logic and easy, and the next is that nothing works anymore and it is hard to get the turnaround unless your account is gone. Thatīs my challenge I am still workin on.
You canīt copy anything, it is just a try on your personal way. These many guys, who tell you, copy me, do what I do, pay me for what I have reached.....forget it. That will not lead to a (sustainable) success. It may work for a couple of time, but the point it crashes will come. Is it worth to do, worth to try, YES in any case, you will learn and thats good. First of all you will learn a lot about yourself, on any try. So always keep on trying.
I am still tryin and be happy with it. :-) Is it possible to give you and advice,......NO! You have to find out for yourself, if you understand this, you are on the right way.
Let me post my results first and then my brief story.
I'm in my late 40s and have a medical background with limited IT skills. I have been trading (for fun, mostly) for about 10 years now. After 2008 GFC, I became interested in economics first and then stocks dabbling and finally futures trading around 2012.
Though I don't have any data of my trading performance for the 1st 5 years, you will have no problems in believing me that I was a losing trader . I love tradervue and above is the result for the last 5 years.
My biggest strength is 'prudence'. I never lost more than 15k per year. Mind you, this is before the Micro contracts and quite easy to be runied by Eminis. I know that it's the tuition I pay to become a trader and hence didn't expect to be profitable quick.However, I did start a journal here in 2014 'My plan to be profitable in 365 days'. How optimistic of me
My annual journey is fairly typical, every year. I will just prod along ok and go up by 5k to 10k during the first few months and then 1 bad day, usually a short trade backfiring. Then I would hope for a turnaround instead of cutting my losses which would end up in a monster loss of 5 to 10k loss. Then rinse and repeat. Probably familiar to lot of traders out there. 2019 was the watershed moment. I became a breakeven trader. Hurray.
Then came the pandemic and all the free time to ponder and research. My trading approach changed to 'probabilistic thinking' and my trading decisions became statistics based instead of 'I think/I know'. I decided to use 'End of Day' orders so that I MUST be flat overnight. This changed everything. Suddenly I'm not responsible for the outcomes of my trades. It's the stats. When it worked, it's the stats. When it failed, it's the stats. Responsibility and stress levels went down. Initially, I kept my size small while experimenting Luckily I have Micros during this time but also used ETF SPY/DIA just to keep the size small. As my confidence in my system increased, I started slowly pushing it up, as you can tell from the 2nd attachement above. It's still just 1/10th of my desired size though i.e I want to trade Eminis but currently experimenting with MES.
5k profit per year in 2022 is not very exciting, I know. But to do that with very little drawdown, minimal risk and consistency is something I'm proud of. The next stage of my trading career is 'sizing up'.
I'm in NO rush though. I have 'possibly' 30+years of life ahead of me, 'probably' 20 + years and 'highly likely' 10+ years. See, that's probabilistic thinking. I don't have any pressure to succeed quick. Thanks to Mr Powell, my passive income from 5% interest has been feeding my family well. Though it may sound arrogant, I think it's important because I'm NOT a scared trader. Hence, I am more likely to succeed. Good luck.
Screenshot 2023-10-12 at 07.33.24 Good place to go long if not in, or to add on. Drawing a line across the two top points, duplicating and putting at low point between will get one real close where the market will tune. The upper left chart grants idea where the wave will end. The red line there is drawn from the beginning of wave A, and end of wave B giving resistance to turn the market.
. I love 
I don't have any pressure to succeed quick. Thanks to Mr Powell, my passive income from 5% interest has been feeding my family well. Though it may sound arrogant, I think it's important because I'm NOT a scared trader. Hence, I am more likely to succeed. Good luck.
