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Search: Posts Made By: aquarian1
Forum: Psychology and Money Management February 28th, 2016, 01:33 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 20,931
Posted By aquarian1
Perhaps they do use statistical and perhaps they...

Perhaps they do use statistical and perhaps they do make money on 100 of thousands of transactions with infinitesimal edges but that doesn't imply a causal link to a tradeable edge from statistics....
Forum: Psychology and Money Management February 27th, 2016, 01:39 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 20,931
Posted By aquarian1
If the market was a matter of applying statistics...

If the market was a matter of applying statistics (the fat tail) and obtaining an edge, then the Goldman Sachs of the world have:

huge amounts of money
vast armies of statisticians
armies of...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management February 27th, 2016, 01:25 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 20,931
Posted By aquarian1
In the Investopia article Ron mentioned, it...

In the Investopia article Ron mentioned, it discusses 50-50, how a string of outcomes and the next outcome, and trends (fat tails).

on speaking of 50-50
"Let's assume that at a given moment in...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management February 26th, 2016, 06:29 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 20,931
Posted By aquarian1
Looking at trades as coin flips makes things...

Looking at trades as coin flips makes things easier when speaking of W:L ratios.

However, trades are dynamic and continuous in outcome - not binary (unless you choose them to be).

So if you...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management February 26th, 2016, 06:21 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 20,931
Posted By aquarian1
I listened to the interview of Mark. I think...

I listened to the interview of Mark.

I think the quote that Ron highlighted was:
"The outcome of anyone particular trade is a completely random event."


Mark later talks about recommending...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management February 18th, 2016, 08:53 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 20,931
Posted By aquarian1
Hi Ron Thanks for the video! I'll look...

Hi Ron

Thanks for the video!

I'll look forward to watching it!

I wrote something in reply to the "gambler's fallacy" (though I never posted it), which I called the statistician's fallacy.
...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management February 17th, 2016, 07:07 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 20,931
Posted By aquarian1
Your idea is much better, I think. ---- ...

Your idea is much better, I think.

----
Here's one from the great WD Gann

Never take advice form someone else unless you're sure he knows more than you. Always do your work and study and then...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management February 17th, 2016, 05:50 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 20,931
Posted By aquarian1
"If you think something is impossible, don't...

"If you think something is impossible, don't bother the person doing it' :-)

-- favorite quote of a young college woman
Forum: Psychology and Money Management February 17th, 2016, 05:47 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 20,931
Posted By aquarian1
very exciting stuff Ron! --you're a...

very exciting stuff Ron!

--you're a dangerous man with that tapatalk! LOL

I put thoughts in between to save tying...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management February 17th, 2016, 05:33 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 20,931
Posted By aquarian1
Well I would say definitely that can be very true...

Well I would say definitely that can be very true - one can be a great analyst and not necessarily be a good trader.
Good analysis (or something else for creating your edge) is a necessary but not...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management February 16th, 2016, 06:55 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 20,931
Posted By aquarian1
Could this be the answer aquarian1 is looking...

Could this be the answer aquarian1 is looking for? I.e. is the difference all in the live execution?

Hi Xplorer

Thank you for the thread.

Actually I really wasn't (initially) making a point...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management February 16th, 2016, 05:31 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 20,931
Posted By aquarian1
Hi Ron, I'm glad my post about parsing was...

Hi Ron,

I'm glad my post about parsing was helpful as a spring board to your thoughts and analogies.

Here is the quote
"Mark states that there is "no positive correlation" connecting learning...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management February 15th, 2016, 03:29 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 20,931
Posted By aquarian1
Thanks Ron, (I almost went back and deleted...

Thanks Ron,

(I almost went back and deleted my question, I was worried that my question might be seen to have had an implication I didn't intent)

Certainly one can have great insights and be a...
Forum: Psychology and Money Management February 15th, 2016, 12:30 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 20,931
Posted By aquarian1
Did Mark make a lot of money from his trading?

Did Mark make a lot of money from his trading?
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