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Posts Made By:
Anagami
Forum:
Psychology and Money Management
April 6th, 2011, 03:42 PM
Replies:
20
Winning Trade % Confidence vs. Straight Losers Expectation
Views:
5,801
Posted By
Anagami
Yes, those two are in fact two different things....
Yes, those two are in fact two different things. The chart is about a likelihood of a string of losses given your expectation for each trade (which is assumed to be constant).... not about...
Forum:
Psychology and Money Management
April 1st, 2011, 11:21 PM
Replies:
20
Winning Trade % Confidence vs. Straight Losers Expectation
Views:
5,801
Posted By
Anagami
These are always fun to mess with. Consider a...
These are always fun to mess with. Consider a method where the losses are twice as big as the wins, but wins happen 90%. Attached. :) I'd say that's a damn nice equity curve... not as nice as...
Forum:
Psychology and Money Management
April 1st, 2011, 11:05 PM
Replies:
20
Winning Trade % Confidence vs. Straight Losers Expectation
Views:
5,801
Posted By
Anagami
You got it!
You got it!
Forum:
Psychology and Money Management
March 21st, 2011, 12:50 PM
Replies:
20
Winning Trade % Confidence vs. Straight Losers Expectation
Views:
5,801
Posted By
Anagami
Yes, exactly.
Yes, exactly.
Forum:
Psychology and Money Management
March 21st, 2011, 12:43 PM
Replies:
20
Winning Trade % Confidence vs. Straight Losers Expectation
Views:
5,801
Posted By
Anagami
2 out of 3 puts you in the 66% row, meaning you...
2 out of 3 puts you in the 66% row, meaning you can reasonably expect 8 losers in a row at some point during your trading career. So your account would probably not dip more than $800 at any one time...
Forum:
Psychology and Money Management
March 21st, 2011, 12:23 PM
Replies:
20
Winning Trade % Confidence vs. Straight Losers Expectation
Views:
5,801
Posted By
Anagami
Yes, that's definitely one way to think about it....
Yes, that's definitely one way to think about it.
It's essentially a psychological tool to help one understand what is likely to be experienced given one's 'batting average'. :)
Forum:
Psychology and Money Management
March 20th, 2011, 09:45 PM
Replies:
20
Winning Trade % Confidence vs. Straight Losers Expectation
Views:
5,801
Posted By
Anagami
Winning Trade % Confidence vs. Straight Losers Expectation
I won't lie, I slapped this together pretty fast, so please let me know if you find any errors. :)
I hope the attached image is self-explanatory. Find your trade confidence in the left column...
Showing results 1 to 7 of 7
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