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Search: Posts Made By: SMCJB
Forum: Commodities April 26th, 2018, 11:40 AM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
It's interesting if you look at prices around the...

It's interesting if you look at prices around the country for May delivery, other than Socal Citygate the entire country is trading below the Gulf Coast. This is a complete reversal from 10 years ago...
Forum: Commodities April 26th, 2018, 11:17 AM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
Draw of 18. I think I'm correct this week in...

Draw of 18. I think I'm correct this week in saying it's the largest draw for this week of the year and only the second time we have drawn stocks this late in the year. Still a cumulative withdrawal...
Forum: Commodities April 19th, 2018, 03:00 PM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
Sorry your right - I was looking at last 10...

Sorry your right - I was looking at last 10 years, not all history
Forum: Commodities April 19th, 2018, 11:53 AM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
Three weeks into April and 3 draw downs in...

Three weeks into April and 3 draw downs in inventories. I believe this weeks draw (3rd week of April) was the first time that we've ever had a draw this late and that this is the first time we've...
Forum: Commodities April 27th, 2017, 04:49 PM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
Move over John Kemp.... I see you posting...

Move over John Kemp....

I see you posting some of the LNG charts on Twitter. Why not post some of these as well?
Forum: Commodities April 27th, 2017, 03:45 PM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
Nice charts Ron. Wish I could say these were...

Nice charts Ron.

Wish I could say these were mine but they are all from John Kemp's daily email... (free to join)...

Winiter was warm

https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=232956
...
Forum: Commodities April 27th, 2017, 02:42 PM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
LNG exports are growing, and swinging the...

LNG exports are growing, and swinging the supply/demand imbalance back the other way. Despite a warm winter, we enter the injection period with stocks significantly below last year, and a lot closer...
Forum: Commodities April 8th, 2017, 10:34 AM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
Sorry jokertrader but I don't have the time to...

Sorry jokertrader but I don't have the time to answer this with the time it deserves. If you search on the site though you will find I have answered similar questions several times.
We consume use...
Forum: Commodities March 6th, 2017, 02:11 PM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
ICE's storage market for this week/9 Mar is...

ICE's storage market for
this week/9 Mar is -65/-63 traded -64
next week/16 Mar is /-50
3rd week/23 mar /-70 traded -80
so looks like expectations are for us to draw another 200 in the next 3...
Forum: Commodities March 4th, 2017, 02:53 PM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
That's quite an astute piece in many ways, and I...

That's quite an astute piece in many ways, and I think he hit the nail on the head. Since pipeline flows have become readily available, estimating storage levels is a lot more precise than when...
Forum: Commodities March 2nd, 2017, 01:16 PM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
And what a fun winter that was.

And what a fun winter that was.
Forum: Commodities March 2nd, 2017, 10:37 AM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
And that ladies and gentlemen was I believe the...

And that ladies and gentlemen was I believe the first ever storage build for the last week of February! In fact I'm not sure we've ever had a build next week either!
Forum: Commodities March 1st, 2017, 11:23 AM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
Good point, although I am a member!

Good point, although I am a member!
Forum: Commodities March 1st, 2017, 09:41 AM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
Natural gas margins coming down today, from $2600...

Natural gas margins coming down today, from $2600 to $2200.
Forum: Commodities February 25th, 2017, 11:26 AM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
There's a very large crude oil thread, and...

There's a very large crude oil thread, and discussions like this have come up several times over there already. Couple of things I will say. Crude carry (land based storage) is a lot lower than...
Forum: Commodities February 25th, 2017, 10:56 AM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
I just meant that with cash prices trading below...

I just meant that with cash prices trading below March, and March trading below April, that implies the market expects prices to gradually rise. In reality if you were to break the curve down to...
Forum: Commodities February 24th, 2017, 10:21 PM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
It's a good read, but remember it was written 20...

It's a good read, but remember it was written 20 years ago, and some of things it discuss's are now obsolete. EFS, LD3, LD5 are all mostly things of the past.

On the subject of books - not natural...
Forum: Commodities February 24th, 2017, 07:29 PM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
Settlement was 2.627. That was the weighted...

Settlement was 2.627. That was the weighted average of all NGH7 trades today between 1300 and 1330 Central on Globex. If you take physical delivery of a contract the gas is delivered rate-ably over...
Forum: Commodities February 24th, 2017, 10:46 AM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
Unfortunately I don't know of any good free...

Unfortunately I don't know of any good free reports. Many of the bank analysts produce some decent research but it's often a little dated and not easy to get on their distribution lists.

Sorry...
Forum: Commodities February 23rd, 2017, 10:06 AM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
From the CL thread

From the CL thread
Forum: Commodities February 22nd, 2017, 09:56 PM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
It exists but its a very very small space. I've...

It exists but its a very very small space. I've been trading this stuff since electronic trading began over 10 years ago. Back then, understanding trading, and computers, and being slightly ahead of...
Forum: Commodities February 20th, 2017, 11:48 AM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
Cross exchange arbitrage, cross product...

Cross exchange arbitrage, cross product arbitrage, market making less liquid products, mean reversion butterflies and spreads. Generally high volume, low margin & very low risk.
Forum: Commodities February 19th, 2017, 11:00 AM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
NG and CL were both NYMEX products and as such...

NG and CL were both NYMEX products and as such have very similar trading hours.
Pit hours for NG were the same as CL.
Globex trading hours are the same as CL (6pm to 5pm Eastern)
Current closing...
Forum: Commodities December 6th, 2016, 08:54 AM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
NG Margin rates go up today from $2350 to $2550 ...

NG Margin rates go up today from $2350 to $2550

Performance Bond Requirements: Natural Gas, NGLs and Petrochemicals Margins - CME Group...
Forum: Commodities December 5th, 2016, 10:39 PM
Replies: 122
Views: 24,262
Posted By SMCJB
Well this is an interesting change... all the...

Well this is an interesting change... all the more relevant since heating demand in the MidWest & Northeast dwarfs that of the Southwest. ie Cold in MW & NE far more significant than warm in SW.
...
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