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Search: Posts Made By: SMCJB
Forum: Commodities May 24th, 2020, 11:19 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
I wouldn't put any weight into my thoughts. I...

I wouldn't put any weight into my thoughts. I have zero conviction in them.
Forum: Commodities May 23rd, 2020, 11:47 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
Meant to reply to this. I don't know what...

Meant to reply to this.

I don't know what you classify as an institutional sales desk? If you mean a bank, no, who cares what they think. If the Goldman Sales guy was telling me what Aron was...
Forum: Commodities April 27th, 2020, 04:11 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
My thoughts were inline with yours. I was talking...

My thoughts were inline with yours. I was talking to a friend in the last few days that works on a big energy trading desk and they thought very differently. Said while all the financial trades love...
Forum: Commodities March 19th, 2020, 03:32 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
Reuters: Majors look to store jet fuel at sea as...

Reuters: Majors look to store jet fuel at sea as air travel drastically curbed...
Forum: Commodities March 4th, 2020, 11:46 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
Reuters: Oil traders hit by unexpected slump in...

Reuters: Oil traders hit by unexpected slump in gasoil
https://www.reuters.com/article/oil-trading-diesel/oil-traders-hit-by-unexpected-slump-in-gasoil-idUSL5N2AQ7YT

"Russell Hardy, chief...
Forum: Commodities February 27th, 2020, 07:02 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
There is actually a Jet Fuel market (yes it's...

There is actually a Jet Fuel market (yes it's called Jet Fuel!) which trades Over-The-Counter rather than on Exchange. But Jet Fuel, like Kerosene, Diesel and Heating Oil are all considered...
Forum: Commodities September 16th, 2019, 06:55 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
Here's a chart of today's price move. You can see...

Here's a chart of today's price move. You can see clearly what I meant by the Z9-J0 spread. I'm not sure what all this means but you can see from the Butterfly chart how even though CLV9 went up the...
Forum: Commodities September 16th, 2019, 12:58 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
Did he slam the green or the red button? Z-J...

Did he slam the green or the red button?

Z-J (353 +223/day) still widening fast versus everything else
Forum: Commodities September 16th, 2019, 10:45 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
It's just a massive bet on how much damaged was...

It's just a massive bet on how much damaged was done. It seems apparent that shutting down the entire complex (~6M bbl/day) was precautionary. So the question is how quickly does this come back. If...
Forum: Commodities August 16th, 2019, 10:27 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
I don't have an opinion on the subject (V-Z) but...

I don't have an opinion on the subject (V-Z) but as I showed in this chart last week, CL definitely seems to be pricing in a multi year supply-demand change which I would suggest is driven by the...
Forum: Commodities November 16th, 2018, 11:04 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
Reuters/Kemp: - Oil market roiled by too much...

Reuters/Kemp: - Oil market roiled by too much gasoline, not enough diesel
...
Forum: Commodities November 15th, 2018, 10:33 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
Sorry should have put this in the first post, but...

Sorry should have put this in the first post, but didn't realize they sent these out in different announcements.

In addition CL, HO, RB outright margins also going up $450
...
Forum: Commodities November 15th, 2018, 10:29 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
If I interpret this CME Performance Bond...

If I interpret this CME Performance Bond Requirement (aka margin) changes correctly it is saying that they are increasing the volatility scan ranges for most oil options effective after the close of...
Forum: Commodities November 13th, 2018, 04:54 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
Head spinning. Crude down $20 (~27%) in last 5...

Head spinning.
Crude down $20 (~27%) in last 5 weeks. Obviously RB and HO both refined from CL.
Crude Stocks are now building quite fast after falling for 18 months. Gasoline stocks are...
Forum: Commodities November 11th, 2018, 09:58 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
http://www.cmegroup.com/globex/files/globex-produc...

http://www.cmegroup.com/globex/files/globex-product-reference-sheet.xls
Forum: Commodities November 10th, 2018, 11:04 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
It really depends what 'months' or products you...

It really depends what 'months' or products you are talking about. In my example I picked the CL X20/Z20 spread for a reason. In Crude Oil the matching engine calculates implied prices for the first...
Forum: Commodities November 9th, 2018, 08:02 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
There are lots of spreads where this is the case....

There are lots of spreads where this is the case. For example even right now, 2 hours before RTH, the CLX20/CLZ20 spread is just two ticks wide. CLX20 as an outright though is 99c wide - and hasn't...
Forum: Commodities October 10th, 2018, 11:00 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
Nov-Mar US consumes more than it produces ...

Nov-Mar US consumes more than it produces
Apr-Oct US produces more than it consumes

At the end of March, if we don't have enough gas in storage, prices (for March) are dictated by scarcity...
Forum: Commodities October 9th, 2018, 04:33 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
ICE trades today EIA 10/11 +93 ... which would...

ICE trades today
EIA 10/11 +93 ... which would be 10-15 BCF higher than usual
EIA 10/18 +82 ... which would be 10 BCF higher than usual
EIA 10/25 +61 ... which would be normal
End of Season 11/08...
Forum: Commodities October 9th, 2018, 03:20 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
Good luck to you. NG has a had a decent move the...

Good luck to you. NG has a had a decent move the last few weeks. I'm not sure what to think from here. Still need to see how the fundamentals pan out. Looks like we are going into winter with the...
Forum: Commodities October 9th, 2018, 02:44 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
You still in, or did you bail?

You still in, or did you bail?
Forum: Commodities September 21st, 2018, 09:47 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
Yes you will. Watch the long term weather...

Yes you will. Watch the long term weather forecasts! NG is a different animal than it was 10-15 years ago when March-April would go to some really crazy prices, but this is still a very asymmetrical...
Forum: Commodities February 20th, 2018, 01:10 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
Interesting John Kemp article on Gasoline &...

Interesting John Kemp article on Gasoline & Diesel, Supply & Demand...

Reuters/Kemp : U.S. refiners turn to export markets as gasoline growth slows at home
...
Forum: Commodities January 6th, 2018, 12:15 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 24,748
Posted By SMCJB
I too am a little surprised how quickly NG gave...

I too am a little surprised how quickly NG gave up the fear of winter. I've had a small outright bullish position on myself (very rare for me to have something like this on) and while I started...
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