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Posts Made By:
monpere
Forum:
Traders Hideout
March 27th, 2012, 06:04 PM
Replies:
67
Probability 101
Views:
39,345
Posted By
monpere
Didn't take offense, nor did I mean to offend. ...
Didn't take offense, nor did I mean to offend. Just was trying to say there are various ways to trade, and since this thread is about probability, I wanted to illustrate how probability comes into...
Forum:
Traders Hideout
March 27th, 2012, 05:43 PM
Replies:
67
Probability 101
Views:
39,345
Posted By
monpere
It is mainly a reversal system, so all the...
It is mainly a reversal system, so all the entries should be on bar reversals, it tries to enter on the bar that creates the peak of the reversal, but if you look closer not every bar reversal...
Forum:
Traders Hideout
March 27th, 2012, 05:25 PM
Replies:
67
Probability 101
Views:
39,345
Posted By
monpere
Don't like the 6E because it just doesn't move...
Don't like the 6E because it just doesn't move enough. Since I trade probability, I want to trade an instrument that produces enough signals during the day in order to for the derived numbers to...
Forum:
Traders Hideout
March 27th, 2012, 04:58 PM
Replies:
67
Probability 101
Views:
39,345
Posted By
monpere
The signals are actually not as accurate as they...
The signals are actually not as accurate as they should be so I don't auto trade it. I have strict filtering rules which I've never been able to program because they are recognition of shapes of...
Forum:
Traders Hideout
March 27th, 2012, 09:42 AM
Replies:
67
Probability 101
Views:
39,345
Posted By
monpere
Funny! I think some of us do seem to think like...
Funny! I think some of us do seem to think like that here ;)
Ok, about the probability part, those are a lot of lofty words. Here's my answer in the form of cold hard candles. Here's yesterday's...
Forum:
Traders Hideout
March 25th, 2012, 07:15 AM
Replies:
67
Probability 101
Views:
39,345
Posted By
monpere
Do you believe you can realistically use...
Do you believe you can realistically use theoretical probability (no historical analysis sample) to determine the chance of the outcome of the very next trade? This is the point I am trying to make,...
Forum:
Traders Hideout
March 25th, 2012, 07:01 AM
Replies:
67
Probability 101
Views:
39,345
Posted By
monpere
Again with the bad analogies. You need to watch...
Again with the bad analogies. You need to watch the videos again. It clearly says that odds and probabilities are not the same thing. Just because you can convert one number into another, it does...
Forum:
Traders Hideout
March 24th, 2012, 09:13 PM
Replies:
67
Probability 101
Views:
39,345
Posted By
monpere
I will indulge yet this attempt to ridicule the...
I will indulge yet this attempt to ridicule the discussion to illustrate the different concepts. The odds of picking 'any' answer on the next random pick 1:4. The probability of picking that answer...
Forum:
Traders Hideout
March 24th, 2012, 07:57 PM
Replies:
67
Probability 101
Views:
39,345
Posted By
monpere
I don't think the market can be compared to a...
I don't think the market can be compared to a fair coin toss. I think it is a meaningless comparison as well. Odds of 1:2, does not mean probability of 50% to me. The odds that the market will...
Forum:
Traders Hideout
March 24th, 2012, 07:49 PM
Replies:
67
Probability 101
Views:
39,345
Posted By
monpere
The way I think about it, 10% probability that...
The way I think about it, 10% probability that you are wrong, is meaningless. 10% probability based on what? To me, the statement does not have enough information to be meaningful. I always think...
Forum:
Traders Hideout
March 24th, 2012, 06:59 PM
Replies:
67
Probability 101
Views:
39,345
Posted By
monpere
I'm no mathematician, but I think we are...
I'm no mathematician, but I think we are confusing 2 different concepts because we are using them interchangeably, Probability and Odds. Probability measures the chances for an event occurring...
Showing results 1 to 11 of 11
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