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Search: Posts Made By: tigertrader
Forum: Traders Hideout November 21st, 2015, 09:51 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
it really isn't that complicated you want...

it really isn't that complicated

you want build profit expectation

you accomplish this by

catching high-impact trades (not random swings)

you also want to
Forum: Traders Hideout November 21st, 2015, 09:17 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
the whole fear and greed thing is a tad...

the whole fear and greed thing is a tad overplayed and anachronistic. machines don't have feelings. a different game is being played everyday, sometimes intra-day. as soon as you figure what's going...
Forum: Traders Hideout November 21st, 2015, 08:38 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
there's actually 4 different scenarios with...

there's actually 4 different scenarios with respect to performance of a long/short pair in various correlation and volatility regimes...


high correlation/low volatility
high...
Forum: Traders Hideout November 21st, 2015, 05:55 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
the importance of who is driving price in any...

the importance of who is driving price in any market is key to understanding current market structure. this may come as a surprise to many, but retail orders from mere mortals like us, have very...
Forum: Traders Hideout November 21st, 2015, 03:17 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
from Dr Brett Steenbarger in 2007

I'm sure there are highly profitable pros somewhere who trade wave patterns, moving averages, chart formations, and the like. In several years of working hands on with such traders, however, I have...
Forum: Traders Hideout November 19th, 2015, 06:42 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
i'm more of a camus guy myself, but jean-paul...

i'm more of a camus guy myself, but jean-paul sartre had a great quote himself

Only the guy who isn't rowing has time to rock the boat.

what have you ever contributed to this forum, other than...
Forum: Traders Hideout November 19th, 2015, 08:59 AM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
its more about causality, my friend A occurs...

its more about causality, my friend

A occurs before B

Therefore A is the cause of B.

The Post Hoc fallacy derives its name from the Latin phrase "Post hoc, ergo propter hoc." This has been...
Forum: Traders Hideout November 19th, 2015, 08:17 AM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
that was val kilmer before fibs this is val...

that was val kilmer before fibs

this is val kilmer after fibs

https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=197985

btw: things would get pretty boring around here, if everybody was on the...
Forum: Traders Hideout November 18th, 2015, 08:53 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
i've yet to be shown one... btw, my...

i've yet to be shown one...

btw, my definition of profitable trader is a trader who can support himself and his family while scaling his account simultaneously, and has been successful doing this...
Forum: Traders Hideout November 18th, 2015, 08:23 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
indeed. no number of confirming...

indeed.

no number of confirming observations can verify a universal generalization, such as "all swans are white", yet it is logically possible to falsify it by observing a single black swan.
...
Forum: Traders Hideout November 18th, 2015, 07:56 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
once again, it's all good, post hoc how many...

once again, it's all good, post hoc

how many times did one have to draw, and re-draw above lines before one got them to "work"

and, while in the process, how many times did one, get in, and get...
Forum: Traders Hideout November 18th, 2015, 07:09 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
pardon my french, but big fucking deal ...

pardon my french,

but

big fucking deal

how bout all the times it doesn't work

ever hear of "survivorship bias"
Forum: Traders Hideout November 18th, 2015, 07:02 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
so, how many did you buy there? i bought a...

so, how many did you buy there?

i bought a shitload, and still have 25% of them, and it wasn't because of a fib

197958
Forum: Traders Hideout November 16th, 2015, 09:28 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
poc ,vwap, and correlations are not systems in of...

poc ,vwap, and correlations are not systems in of themselves. anyone that uses a system solely based on their( poc, vwap, correlations) relationship to price, will find it very difficult to be...
Forum: Traders Hideout November 16th, 2015, 09:12 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
i covered 1/2 my short es position below 2000 and...

i covered 1/2 my short es position below 2000 and then added on the rally, which i subsequently scratched last night. and, then flipped long, this a.m.
Forum: Traders Hideout November 16th, 2015, 08:47 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
the very nature of "risk" means more things "can"...

the very nature of "risk" means more things "can" happen than "will" happen; unlikely things "will" happen-and likely things "will fail" to happen. this underscores the difference between probability...
Forum: Traders Hideout November 16th, 2015, 07:17 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
the market isn't (necessarily) going to...

the market isn't (necessarily) going to accommodate the trader's time-frame, style, or methodology. if and when it does, it is by random luck. the trader needs to "custom fit" his approach to the...
Forum: Traders Hideout November 16th, 2015, 07:01 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
current position... 197778

current position...

197778
Forum: Traders Hideout November 15th, 2015, 07:59 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
apparently NOT, because we traded down to...

apparently NOT, because we traded down to 1998.50, this evening. luckily i held onto 30 shorts, but what i should have done, is kept my entire package. all these approaches play into the powerful...
Forum: Traders Hideout November 15th, 2015, 05:10 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=19...

https://nexusfi.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=197687

i'm short

where do i cover and flip?

market is probably going to open through the 38.2% retracement

so what do i do?
Forum: Traders Hideout November 15th, 2015, 02:09 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
similar sentiment... but, personally i like...

similar sentiment...

but, personally i like "pho"

had some yesterday, at the in-laws

the reaction was as "natural-as-it-gets."

and, gave new meaning to the term"golden ratio"
Forum: Traders Hideout November 8th, 2015, 04:56 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
leo should not take it personally. i got into the...

leo should not take it personally. i got into the same argument with john bollinger, about his eponymouslly named liitle bands.
Forum: Traders Hideout November 8th, 2015, 12:57 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
i hope my comments are not misconstrued as pretentious nor disputatious, rather than

an attempt to provoke thought.

as a leveraged trader, one makes short-term decisions/trades, manages the risk/ keeps draw-downs to manageable levels and occasionally turns short-term winning...
Forum: Traders Hideout November 7th, 2015, 07:48 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
like i said, how many times has it gotten you out...

like i said, how many times has it gotten you out of a trade prematurely vs the optimal exploitation of the trade?


do you have any idea if it has had a positive or adverse effect on your...
Forum: Traders Hideout November 7th, 2015, 07:40 PM
Replies: 434
Views: 201,611
Posted By tigertrader
good for you, but that's not the question. ...

good for you, but that's not the question.

the question is how often do they work compared to how often they don't work.

everybody loves to show their winning trades, but how often has the use...
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