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Search: Posts Made By: bob666s
Forum: Cryptocurrency October 13th, 2021, 11:17 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 2,389
Posted By bob666s
CME implied sentiment updates: v21: we're at...

CME implied sentiment updates:

v21: we're at relatively high optimism, with the number at 90percentile...
Forum: Cryptocurrency October 13th, 2021, 03:21 AM
Replies: 19
Views: 2,389
Posted By bob666s
estimated otc platform customer sentiment: ...

estimated otc platform customer sentiment: ...
Forum: Cryptocurrency October 11th, 2021, 09:49 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 2,389
Posted By bob666s
CME traders turning relatively optimistic. ...

CME traders turning relatively optimistic.
...
Forum: Cryptocurrency October 6th, 2021, 12:55 AM
Replies: 19
Views: 2,389
Posted By bob666s
Big buy flow on BTC calls in the previous day,...

Big buy flow on BTC calls in the previous day, this is usually bullish but with stocks moving lower, and OTC forward/swap retail longs getting crowded, the rally could slow.
...
Forum: Cryptocurrency October 3rd, 2021, 08:24 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 2,389
Posted By bob666s
I've begun to estimate implied sentiment at the...

I've begun to estimate implied sentiment at the OTC dealers, too.
...
Forum: Cryptocurrency October 1st, 2021, 09:19 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 2,389
Posted By bob666s
CME implied sentiment...

CME implied sentiment (https://bastion.substack.com/p/cme-bitcoin-implied-sentiment/comments) update:

It looks like nearly all of the bearish bets built up the previous week had been squeezed in...
Forum: Cryptocurrency September 30th, 2021, 09:14 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 2,389
Posted By bob666s
updated sentiment Front Month: ...

updated sentiment

Front Month: ...
Forum: Cryptocurrency September 28th, 2021, 10:46 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 2,389
Posted By bob666s
short term sentiment is looking like shorts...

short term sentiment is looking like shorts getting crowded...
Forum: Cryptocurrency September 23rd, 2021, 08:04 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 2,389
Posted By bob666s
Updated CME Bitcoin Futures, Futures-Options...

Updated CME Bitcoin Futures, Futures-Options implied sentiment:
...
Forum: Cryptocurrency September 17th, 2021, 09:11 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 2,389
Posted By bob666s
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limi...

https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Faffa5446-8...
Forum: Cryptocurrency September 16th, 2021, 08:50 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 2,389
Posted By bob666s
Updated Estimates: Average Production Cost...

Updated Estimates:

Average Production Cost estimate: still about $35.9K USD
Expected Price Magnet for the coming quarter: about $49.9K USD

Macro Sentiment: just turned slightly positive from...
Forum: Cryptocurrency September 13th, 2021, 08:40 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 2,389
Posted By bob666s
Updated estimates: Average Production Cost:...

Updated estimates:

Average Production Cost: $35.9K~
Next Quarter Fair Value: $49.9K~

Macro Sentiment: Slight fear, which is slightly bullish.

Statistical price bias based on macro data mix:...
Forum: Cryptocurrency September 11th, 2021, 04:19 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 2,389
Posted By bob666s
Weekend update. Production cost, fair value...

Weekend update.

Production cost, fair value estimates haven't really changed.

I've begun to post implied sentiment from CME Bitcoin Reference Rate Futures Options, it's currently showing...
Forum: Cryptocurrency September 10th, 2021, 07:30 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 2,389
Posted By bob666s
So what I did was take the total electricity cost...

So what I did was take the total electricity cost index, which is power used per day, divided it by the estimated number of BTC coins mined per day.

Then, apply an estimated ratio for total...
Forum: Cryptocurrency September 10th, 2021, 02:15 AM
Replies: 19
Views: 2,389
Posted By bob666s
Thanks, HedgePlay. I've decided to combine...

Thanks, HedgePlay.

I've decided to combine the sentiment estimate along with my production cost, fair value derivations.

Latest sentiment is at -2.1%

Current Average Production Cost is...
Forum: Cryptocurrency September 9th, 2021, 04:45 AM
Replies: 19
Views: 2,389
Posted By bob666s
I understand what you mean, since most of these...

I understand what you mean, since most of these dealer platforms are really just OTC desks, data from them isn't very reliable. I've looked through option data from Deribit, and found some issues...
Forum: Cryptocurrency September 8th, 2021, 01:06 AM
Replies: 19
Views: 2,389
Posted By bob666s
BTC short term sentiment

I've seen a few sentiment estimates for bitcoin that may be a bit too complex for their own good. So I wanted to take a simpler approach, by looking at price impact of it against a basket of stock...
Showing results 1 to 17 of 17

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