about all kinds of things all the time and how they relate to trading.

I've though about a journal, but then though better of it based on what I've seen happen to others that have tried to "share". What happens then is that I post something somewhere and it does not belong there or I "hijack" someone elses thread. Both are somewhat disrespectful. So, I decided to start my own thread under "journals" so that I could "journal" my thoughts. Maybe that means share methods, indicators or ideas. I'm not really sure.

So today I came across a little video and it reminded me of a few discussion threads here and elsewhere about "coin flip", "random" lines and the Holy Grail.

My opinion is that the big difference between the winning trader and everyone else is never the indie or the method...it is almost always the trader. So here is the video. Looking for comments or discussion on what you think "makes" or "breaks" in this business.

wldman 

about all kinds of things all the time and how they relate to trading. So today I came across a little video and it reminded me of a few discussion threads here and elsewhere about "coin flip", "random" lines and the Holy Grail. My opinion is that the big difference between the winning trader and everyone else is never the indie or the method...it is almost always the trader. Looking for comments or discussion on what you think "makes" or "breaks" in this business.

Your video reminds me of how differing perceptions of events can influence our future decisions. If we're not in the bunker during the explosion/implosion and look in at a later date (how much later may also impact our perception) we may derive grossly differing opinions of cause/effect based upon the carnage left behind. An example may be the different realities of Alan Greenspan and Brooksley Born when they peered into the LTCM (Long-Term Capital Management) bunker. To simplify my opinion, I believe Brooksley saw a bunker with a huge amount of un-exploded unstable gunpowder remaining intact, and Alan saw a cat that just needed a total bionic makeover, a total rebuild/restructuring using all and more of the synthetic parts that were available at the time. IMO, Brooksley's reality was/is the correct one. I know the video says either/or (dead/alive), but in the real (trading) world who agrees on anything, but we may agree a good attorney can win a case from either side of any argument.


"Looking for comments or discussion on what you think "makes" or "breaks" in this business."

Flexibility and replication are high on my make/break list. Hard and fast rules never worked for me over the long run, as a day/session trader I had to develop an intuition of my market. The hard part was trusting that intuition, and executing orders based on it. I agree it's not, "the indie or the method." IMO, this week (in the 6E) will be a good example. The Euro has a way of defying reality and especially so during times of thin sporadic trading sessions. As Spanish and Italian bonds traded near record highs the mighty Euro continued to rise (2-6am est). Friday was another example, I've been probing for a run from 1.3544 to 1.3626 and after a couple attempts someone saw fit to start a rumor. I thought I'd see a little more enthusiasm from frightened shorts covering and hit my target but prices soon fell. Then I thought this mornings run may break Friday's high and tag my target but the strain of those bonds (IMO) were to much. Some of my trades are just plain luck and if I don't honestly qualify them as such, they can wreak havoc on my statistics of reproducible trades (replication).

BTW, I'd like to see some of those Wave 59 charts

Love the insight. Maybe you are a visual metaphor guy like me? I am tied up this morning but I want to make a regular reply.

DB