NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





Trading FOMC news


Discussion in Traders Hideout

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Big Mike with 1 posts (0 thanks)
    2. looks_two Quick Summary with 1 posts (0 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Fat Tails with 1 posts (0 thanks)
    4. looks_4 shodson with 1 posts (2 thanks)
    1. trending_up 5,426 views
    2. thumb_up 2 thanks given
    3. group 3 followers
    1. forum 4 posts
    2. attach_file 3 attachments




Closed Thread
 
Search this Thread
  #1 (permalink)
 
shodson's Avatar
 shodson 
OC, California, USA
Quantoholic
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB/TWS, NinjaTrader, ToS
Broker: IB, ToS, Kinetick
Trading: stocks, options, futures, VIX
Posts: 1,971 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 534
Thanks Received: 3,711

Hubert Senters describes this approach to playing FOMC news in this video. I looked at a database of ES charts of 5-min charts of previous FOMC days and it seems like what he's talking about makes sense, as long as you can accurately measure the impulses he describes and have good money mgt in place.

Might be worth a look. News comes out in 2hrs!


Follow me on X Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Topstep Slashes XFA Payout Caps by Up to 60% -- Flagship …
Funded Trading Evaluation Firms
Kalshi Rockets to $22B, Passes Polymarket in Volume -- B …
Prediction Markets & Event Contracts
Day 97: Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Struck Overnight -- WTI …
Traders Hideout
CME Launches Bitcoin Volatility Futures June 1 -- First …
Cryptocurrency
Trump Truth Social Fires Hormuz From 10% to 59% -- Arsen …
Prediction Markets & Event Contracts
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Sober Journey With S&P
25 thanks
2026 Jlab journal
10 thanks
Lady Vols Primer: Trading Volatility Journal
8 thanks
Algo automated / semi-automated trading anyone?
6 thanks
Trying to learn Volume and price action correlation
5 thanks
  #3 (permalink)
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 Fat Tails 
Berlin, Europe
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Interactive Brokers
Trading: Futures & Stocks
Posts: 9,887 since Mar 2010
Thanks Given: 4,242
Thanks Received: 27,114


I agree with the video of Hubert Senters and the 3 swings. I think this is what happens:

(1) News comes out: Some traders are hitting the button, this creates a short term impact on price.

(2) Larger traders are waiting in the trenches and trade price back into the area where it has started. But here we need to differentiate:

(a) the news it not expected -> the second swing might be dangerous to trade

(b) price has already anticipated the news during the day -> it can be very rewarding to trade the first countermove, often the expected outcome is discounted by price and the first swing following the release is the final high that traps new with-trend traders

(c) news is as expected -> price moves to support or resistance and retraces back to where it was before the news release

Below is a chart with today's price action and you will notice the impact of two news events

- Unexpected: Spain's downgrade by Standard & Poors
- Expected: FOMC release

The spain downgrade was clearly used by larger traders to trap and take out weak longs. This game is part of many topping or bottoming formations. It clears the market from vermin, and nothing is better than a news release to do this.

The FOMC release was less exciting, but good enough to push price up to the next Fibonacci line.

A note on those Fib lines: Both are confluence zones. The dominant lines of the zones are:

- lower line which stopped price after downgrade of Spain is a 127.2% extension
- upper line which stopped price after FOMC meeting is a 38.2% retracement line

Note that price stopped exactly at the fib line in both cases.


Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	News Release.jpg
Views:	250
Size:	106.5 KB
ID:	12316   Click image for larger version

Name:	Spain downgrade stopped.jpg
Views:	280
Size:	100.4 KB
ID:	12317   Click image for larger version

Name:	FOMC stopped.jpg
Views:	262
Size:	90.0 KB
ID:	12318  
  #4 (permalink)
Bharatiya
ND, India
 
Posts: 46 since Feb 2010
Thanks Given: 285
Thanks Received: 47

What traders are expecting or not expecting from fed. Another QE3 or rate increase???
Currencies are completely flatten not much volume or volatility??


  #5 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator
Developer
Swing Trader
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,669 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,669
Thanks Received: 102,557


Bharatiya View Post
What traders are expecting or not expecting from fed. Another QE3 or rate increase???
Currencies are completely flatten not much volume or volatility??

The thread you posted in is over 2 years old since the last post.

The recent thread is here:


Mike




We're here to help: just ask the community or contact our Help Desk

Quick Links: Change your Username or Register as a Vendor
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list
Lifetime Elite Membership: Sign-up for only $149 USD
Exclusive money saving offers from our Site Sponsors: Browse Offers
Report problems with the site: Using the NexusFi changelog thread
Follow me on X Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal

Closed Thread



Last Updated on August 1, 2012


© 2026 NexusFi®, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Downloads - Top
no new posts