Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Unfortunately it looks like the download links have been pulled as it has now sold out.
I have a PDF document for it which I can send you if you PM me your email address.
Now, that it seems the May drop is probably not going to materialize this year in ES, CL and the volatility in other commodities pretty low compared to historical numbers (there might be a coupel of exceptions which I have missed), what are people trading/watching?
Right now I'm looking at June CL 130 calls and July Soybeans 1250/1240 puts (doing a vertical to get a decent ROI and offset the likely increased volatility).
I have a lot of softs on already Cotton, Sugar, Coffee so looking to diversify to some other markets.
We certainly respect the fact that seasonals don't happen as planned every year, but we also feel like over-extended bull markets are the best environments for such a pullback to happen. After all, in such a market buy stops have likely already been run, and sell stops are lining the downside. All it will take is a trigger to get the ball rolling.
With so many people expecting the May sell-off, it isn't surprising that we saw an early May rally (although I wasn't expecting it to be quite this swift). I guess what I'm saying is...perhaps this is the time to be nibbling on short calls in the CL and ES at distant strikes.
Many of our clients are holding short ES calls and short crude strangles, which are lopsided with a bearish bias. Unfortunately, we were caught up in the dramatic crude plunge/rally and our timing wasn't perfect on entering the short ES calls, but the beauty of option selling is that there is some room for error. I just hope we have enough
*There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
If you have any questions about the products or services provided by DeCarleyTrading, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread.
Crude is a little more complicated...we've re-strangled and rolled puts up at least once to catch up with volatility and deltas. But at the moment we are in a July 86/97 strangle. The call is uncomfortably close, we are typically at least $7 to $10 out of the money on each side, but this has been a wild move so we are willing to give it a little more time. The back up plan will likely be to either roll into an August strangle, or buy back the July 97 and sell another put and 2 calls higher up.
Accounting for all adjustments and locked in profits on puts, the approximate draw down per lot is roughly $1.50 ($1,500). It's been painful, but in light of the $12 drop and subsequent $11 rally it could have been much worse. Ironically, playing it safe (rolling puts into bullish strangles) when the market was trading in the high 80's was our downfall.
*There is unlimited risk in naked option selling!
*There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.
If you have any questions about the products or services provided by DeCarleyTrading, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io " Ask Me Anything" thread.