I started papertrading a specific setup for SPY in 2013.

A trade can last from a couple of hours to serveral days/weeks.

A trade is LONG only.

My profit target = +2.00, my stoploss is -2.00.

So far the setup occurred 20 times in 2013.

I got 15 winners and 5 losers.

Should I start trading this strategy with real money or is this too early? What would you do?

How do I know if I have an edge?

maildigger 

I started papertrading a specific setup for SPY in 2013. A trade can last from a couple of hours to serveral days/weeks. A trade is LONG only. My profit target = +2.00, my stoploss is -2.00. So far the setup occurred 20 times in 2013. I got 15 winners and 5 losers. Should I start trading this strategy with real money or is this too early? What would you do? How do I know if I have an edge?

How would it work during a market turndown? Or, how will you know when to turn it off? SPY won't be going up forever...

maildigger 

... How do I know if I have an edge?

How would your strategy behave in a bear market? I ask you this as we are presently in a bull market so you want to make sure you will recognise a change of behavior quick enough to protect your capital.

EDIT: Kevin was quicker than me. :-)

maildigger 

... So far the setup occurred 20 times in 2013. I got 15 winners and 5 losers. Should I start trading this strategy with real money or is this too early? What would you do?...

This is already a good start under this years circumstances!
Over all some or MUCH more trades have to be aligned to see where that winning curve goes.
One can speak of an edge when a track record of 1+ year(s) shows still the same.
As for the strategy the other end of the rope - aka descending markets - should be attached
to play the game under just any market conditions.
Good luck
GFIs1