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I am afraid we are discussing in the wrong thread. I will continue in a new thread in the commodity section. Perhaps a moderator can move the whole discussion there.
Interesting observation. It seems that odd prices decay at a different, perhaps slower, rate than others. For example, I have a small position in ES at 1680 and it's not decaying as fast as 1650. I'm wondering if this is a function of lower volume or if I'm seeing something that just isn't there.
My position has been out for about 14 days and the price decay hasn't been nearly as aggressive as I thought it would, 20%.
Don't look at last trade, look at mid point between bid and ask. Aug 1680 has declined more than 1650 in last two weeks.
There are other factors but the main one is price decay is dependent on what the futures do. ES futures are down 18 over last two weeks so decay is slower for puts.
Thanks for the info Ron, I'm looking to put on my first, largish position against ES next week. 75 contracts at 1650 and 25 at 1700 for Sept for a total of 100 puts. Let's see how that goes.
Good point. $225k is the size of my account but I've been trading with a lot less for the past 6 months or so. You're probably right about the size of the trade though...I just kinda said "f' it, let's jump into the deep end of the pool". Probably not the smartest idea so ... good that I'm getting feedback from the folks here .