Hello,

I ponder about partially fundament-based system within intraday trading.
Larry Williams mentioned in one of his book 3 basic fundamental clues:

1. Premium spread (difference in price of two following contracts)
2. Open Interest + Volume
3. Journal of Commerce, WSJ

As he've written his books in the time when personal computers were just about to spread widely, I am wondering wheter more sophisticated tools can be used beside those.
Recently, I was advised to pinnacledata.com providing among variet kinds of servises daily-based data of open interest.
Also I'd like to make work an indicator monitoring large players and trade on their's side but trying to figure out if it's possible at NinjaTrader platform before pursh of TradeStation (have not probed deeply yet).
As you acknowledge fundaments in the market and behaviour of big players?

jirakst 

Hello, I ponder about partially fundament-based system within intraday trading. Larry Williams mentioned in one of his book 3 basic fundamental clues: Premium spread (difference in price of two following contracts) Open Interest + Volume Journal of Commerce, WSJ As he've written his books in the time when personal computers were just about to spread widely, I am wondering wheter more sophisticated tools can be used beside those. Recently, I was advised to pinnacledata.com providing among variet kinds of servises daily-based data of open interest. Also I'd like to make work an indicator monitoring large players and trade on their's side but trying to figure out if it's possible at NinjaTrader platform before pursh of TradeStation (have not probed deeply yet). As you acknowledge fundaments in the market and behaviour of big players?

One of the most prominent platforms for tracking "smart money vs dumb money" is SentimenTrader.
For an overview of their indicators see: Indicators

I've stumbled upon that in Dr. Elder's book but my initial notion (sentiment :-) was it works at the level of years and totally forget to investigate it properly.
Today I found this commentent free source of some'ssentimentrader reports: Smart Money Tracker -
I'm also about the begining to subscrite Barron's Commodities: News, Analysis - Barrons.com to catch up the temper of the market and important turningpoints.
Having that said, it's being to emerge to me a fundament system as follows:

1. premium spread
2. pinnacledata (Open Interest + Vol)
3. Sentimantrader
4. Barron's

jirakst 

I've stumbled upon that in Dr. Elder's book but my initial notion (sentiment :-) was it works at the level of years and totally forget to investigate it properly. Today I found this commentent free source of some'ssentimentrader reports: Smart Money Tracker - I'm also about the begining to subscrite Barron's Commodities: News, Analysis - Barrons.com to catch up the temper of the market and important turningpoints. Having that said, it's being to emerge to me a fundament system as follows: premium spread pinnacledata (Open Interest + Vol) Sentimantrader Barron's

Don't expect too much from this list. It is neither a strategy nor a trading system.
It's just a set of basic information that needs your examination in order to find a strategy.

To put it another way: You are at the beginning of step 1 - out of 5 steps that people like Newton, Popper,
and Aronson (Evidence-Based Technical Analysis) have established.

Yes, as I'm looking for an addition to my intraday system, I'm gathering data in oder to suplement contemporary trend of EMA204 with something of more deeper insight. Also, I'm wondering how others threat fundametal background of the market.

jirakst 

Yes, as I'm looking for an addition to my intraday system, I'm gathering data in oder to suplement contemporary trend of EMA204 with something of more deeper insight. Also, I'm wondering how others threat fundametal background of the market.

That depends - among other factors - on your time horizon and your understanding of what fundamentals are.

If you understand the daily data schedule by "fundamentals", good luck with trading that - you just entered one
of the most capital-intensive fields of HFT that has already wiped out total divisions of manual news traders.
If you think e.g. of earnings estimates for the S&P, you will have about 4 to 12 data points per year, which presumably
give you a certain bias for the medium term, but you will have to test if this filter help your intraday trading.

Academia and practical experience support the view that fundamentals influence/determine prices in the long and
medium term, but that market/price action dominates in the short term. Accordingly many (intra)day traders don't
read much while trading as soon as they found their bias for the day - except for unexpected realtime news that
influence their trades.

As the (intra)day trader saying goes: You can either trade or read the news.

This gives some interesting perspective on CoT ..

Futures S&P 500 Chart Daily

choke35 

That depends - among other factors - on your time horizon and your understanding of what fundamentals are. If you understand the daily data schedule by "fundamentals", good luck with trading that - you just entered one of the most capital-intensive fields of HFT that has already wiped out total divisions of manual news traders. If you think e.g. of earnings estimates for the S&P, you will have about 4 to 12 data points per year, which presumably give you a certain bias for the medium term, but you will have to test if this filter help your intraday trading. Academia and practical experience support the view that fundamentals influence/determine prices in the long and medium term, but that market/price action dominates in the short term. Accordingly many (intra)day traders don't read much while trading as soon as they found their bias for the day - except for unexpected realtime news that influence their trades. As the (intra)day trader saying goes: You can either trade or read the news.

My intention was to determinate wheter the mid-term market based on fundaments is likely to be bullish or bearish and on that side trade on short-term using by technical methods.

Old thread but still relevant. The institutional footprint debate has evolved a lot since this was posted.

What we now call "smart money concepts" (order blocks, fair value gaps, break of structure) is basically a retail-friendly framework for identifying areas where institutional orders cluster. Whether it's the same thing as traditional order flow analysis is debatable, but the concepts map well to observable price behavior.

The practical question isn't really "can you trace smart money" but "can you systematically test whether these levels actually hold?" I've been working on backtesting SMC setups specifically (OB + FVG confluence entries, BOS confirmations) and the results are mixed: they work well in trending conditions on FX majors, but false signals spike in ranging markets.

Anyone else here actually backtesting SMC/ICT setups with data rather than just trading them discretionary?